每日更新 - 被约束的预算 The Daily Update - A budget of constraints

正如预期的,菲利普·哈蒙德(Philip Hammond)的第一次和最后一次暑期预算对政府总体支出提供了许多温和的调整。这已经反映在市场上,英镑和金价在他的演讲之后几乎没有改变。除了对反对派领导人的耻辱以外,最显着的提及是对OBR预测的改变。

在当前和未来5年里,从更具弹性的增长和税收收入中估计减少240亿英镑的公共部门净借款,将支持大臣“让英国人恢复生计”的愿景。未来5年的总体增长预测仍然没有改变,但是该轨迹在当前年度增长更多(从之前的1.4%增长至2%),同时减少随后的分别为2018年,2019年和2020年增长的0.1%,0.4%以及0.2% 。

尝试将税收等同于就业和个体经营者之间的税收可能是最重要的收入支持公告,加上承诺,来“解决回避以及逃税和不合规”的承诺。其他值得注意的举措包括引入T级,这是一个新技术性资格;资助110所新免费学校;对即将增加的小企业利率的平衡措施和提高生产力的总体动力。但是,随着几乎每个部门的大量限制和保护支出,保守党的选举宣言承诺没有收入、增加值或NIC的增税,这些无趣的调整是大约可以看出是从一个绑手绑脚的大臣手上来的。

广泛的教训随着被时间推移减少净债务而日益增加的挑战,而增加收入或削减开支的新措施变得越来越微不足道,但是却越来越受欢迎。只有到目前为止,在英国更美好的前景下,这一个预算可以去抵消过去几十年的借款 。随着债务上升,去杠杆化呈指数级下降:不断增长的利息支付和根深蒂固的公民预期支出超过平均水平。即使英国公共部门借款到2021年减少到168亿英镑,这仍赤字仍是1%左右 - 从技术上来说,绝对没有去杠杆化。但是如果相信OBR增长预测,那么债务占国内生产毛额(GDP)的百分比最终会在2018年达到88.8%之后下降至80%以下。这与10年前全球金融危机的35%水平相比,还有很长的距离 。

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