每日更新 - 中国保持持续增长的势头 The Daily Update - China's sustained growth momentum

2017年伊始,中国经济展现了可喜的姿态,发布的经济数据表明,已经为保持经济增长势头注入了新的动力。发布的二月份的工业生产(IP)数据超过市场预期,比去年同期增加6.3%;这归功于由制造业和公共事业部门的增长。固定资产投资(FAI)也超越预期,比去年同期增加8.9%,而一月份这一数据为8.1%。同时,由于汽车销售额的下降,零售业销售额低于市场共识(虽然比去年同期增加9.5%);这可能是因为,今年对低排量小汽车的税收激励减少,2016年消费者赶在这一政策实施之前购买了更多的小汽车。

房地产部门(也算得上是一个关注点)也展现了温和复苏的迹象,具体而言,房地产投资比去年同期增加2%到8.9%。根据中国国家统计局的数据,三四线城市已经从近期房地产销售的增长中获益,房地产销售增加符合决策者降低中小城市房产库存的期望。

2017年五大经济任务中的部分内容

本月较早前,全国人民代表大会宣布,中国的经济增长目标正式地降低到6.5%左右(以前为6.5%到7%之间)。考虑到近期积极的经济数据,且如果其它所有条件相同的话,我们不希望中国经济仅仅为达到此目标而挣扎,而是在事实上能超越这一目标。然而,政府并不希望经济过热,也不希望为了实现此目标而采取刺激措施;政府期望的是经济发展更注重质量和可持续增长,并发现和管控好金融风险。

毫无疑问,这个增长率将决定未来的货币和财政政策组合。我们希望决策者能维持偏向于积极的财政政策,尤其是当前货币政策受限于央行试图阻止资金外流。预算赤字仅为本年度GDP的3%,这给了政府足够的空间采取各种准财政措施以实现增长目标:比如,如果通胀率大幅上升,中国央行不得不实施紧缩政策。由于美联储本周将利率上调了25个基准点且本年度还会有更多的加息,实际的利率差距将扩大,这有可能迫使中国央行实施紧缩政策。目前,我们认为中国央行将维持“稳健和中性”的货币政策,在这个关口,预期不会有利率上调。

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