每日更新 - 荷兰以及法国大选 The Daily Update - Dutch and French elections

今年,整个欧洲有一系列的选举活动,本周三荷兰选民率先参加了本国的选举投票。法国紧随其后于4月举行第一轮总统选举,5月份最终角逐在两名领先的候选人之间展开;然后德国在9月份举行大选。考虑到民粹政治的崛起,英国投票支持脱欧以及特朗普赢得总统选举,市场对政治因素投入了更多关注。

可喜的是,至少对于民意调查者来说,后来的民意调查具有准确意义,他们预计自民党(VVD)会赢得最多数议席;然而,鲁特领导的自由主义党派赢得150个议席中的33席,超过预期,这可能是因为在近期与土耳其的争端,他的强硬立场赢得了支持。吉尔特×威尔德斯领导的反建制、反移民、反欧元的极右翼的自由党(PVV)在一月份的民意调查中还处于领先地位,其竞选口号为“夺回我们自己的荷兰”,赢得了20个议席。

然后,由于荷兰的比例代表制,荷兰的选举结果却显得有些支离破碎,一共有13个党派赢得议席。工党(PvdA,是自由党的前联盟伙伴)却遭受了重大失败,仅赢得9个席位(以前为38个),这意味着要组成一个联合政府需要至少四个党派进行合作,才能赢得大多数席位。潜在的联盟伙伴包括基督教民主党(CDA,其表现不错赢得了19个议席),自由进步民主党66(D66,赢得了19个议席),以及绿色左翼党(赢得了16个议席)。历史经验表明,组建一个联合政府会花费一些时间:看起来,自从第二次世界大战以来,平均要花72天才能组建一个联合政府。

在整个竞选期间(即使当威尔德斯在民意调查的结果中表现强劲时),荷兰的债券市场都表现得相当乐观,这是因为需要组建一个联合政府,从而对实施激进政策形成了一定程度的缓和:一直到2月份,荷兰10年期债券相对于德国国债(自2016年年中以来)保持了10到20个基点的利差区间,当时已经扩大到将近32个基点,但仍然处于5年期债券的范围内,在选举前和选举后,这个数字为约25个基点。

在其它地方,法国选举也充满了戏剧性和阴谋,看起来仍然有可能充满紧张刺激直至结束。马克龙和玛丽娜×勒庞看起来是最有可能赢得首轮投票的候选人,并在最终的决胜选举中彼此竞争。3月16日的一份民意调查显示,马克龙的支持率为25%,落后于玛丽娜×勒庞(支持率为27%),而右翼候选人菲永的支持率为19%。在第二轮决选中,民意调查预测马克龙会击败勒庞,赢得60%的选票。如果菲永能坚持到第二轮,角逐将更激烈,菲永会赢得56%的选票而勒庞赢得44%的选票。然而,本周菲永因涉嫌盗用公共资金接受正式调查,他被指控让妻儿以虚设职位领取大量公款。虽然雇佣家庭成员并不违法,但由于领取公款的数额以及指控该工作岗位并不是真实存在,这导致了对他的调查,也影响了他当选为下一届总统的机会;然而他下决心继续参加竞选。

下一次电视辩论将于3月20日举行,且有可能受到密切关注。不确定性反应在政府公债的收益率上,10年期长期国债(OAT)的收益率为1.14%,其与德国国债的利差为66个基点;而2月份这个利差高达80个基点,然而在过去的3年中,这个利差甚至更高。

政治风险是且有可能一直是驱动欧洲债券市场的关键因素。此外,美国更高的利率对欧洲中央银行来说也有可能是一个不受欢迎的因素,因为这会给采取一个不太宽松的立场带来压力,尤其是考虑到通胀在德国正在抬头。考虑到许多欧洲债券的更短端交易其收益为负,这会构成一个潜在的有毒组合。对于我们来说,这些风险很容易规避,因为我们仍然在努力寻找某些欧洲信用产品,这些产品很有吸引力,经过了我们估值模型的筛选,或者为我们所面对的以美元计价的问题提供了一个更好的可替代解决方案。

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