每日更新 - 欧洲大选季 The Daily Update - European elections season

本周没有太多新闻,今日焦点仍是英国政治和提前选举带来的潜在影响,也关注乔治·奥斯本的动态,他将离开英国议会,把精力放在英国标准晚报的新任职位上。截止发稿,英镑始终保持强劲,兑美元为1.2850,接近200天以来的最高值,这让富时100指数持续下跌,已经跌至7150点,比提前选举决策公布前下跌了2.5%。今天早些时候,议会以522比13多数票通过在6月8日提前进行大选,保守党在最近民调领先21点,赢得多数席位的几率为1/12。

政客预测保守党从工党抢夺大约70个席位,这将让他们从650个席位获得400个席位,相当于多拥有150个多数席位(而不是现在的12个多数席位)。很显然,市场认同首相特蕾莎·梅的决策,认为这有助于统一加强英国在退欧协商中的地位。重要的是,如果拥有这样的多数席位,可以削弱保守党内一些好争斗的脱欧人士,他们可能对英国脱欧发挥巨大的影响力。如果梅得偿所愿,尽管这还有很大的变数,她在直接谈判中所受的掣肘就会大大减少,就会加强在布鲁塞尔世的手腕,而不会为了强硬而强硬。欧洲大选季越来越忙碌,希望提前大选的决定只是唯一出人意料的地方,大选结果不要再让人惊讶。

法国大选首轮投票将于本周日举行。这又是一场势均力敌的竞赛,最近显示结果可能并非预期所料,对此市场有些躁动。对市场而言,最沮丧的结果可能是勒庞/梅朗雄达成平手,进入5月7日的第二轮投票。最近民调显示,马克龙(前进!党)与勒庞(国民阵线党)的差距在缩小,梅朗雄(不屈法国党)获得了阿蒙(社会党)的支持,与菲永(共和党)达成平手。四大政党选手的支持率都在20%左右,彼此只有4%的差距,这倒让英国政治相形见绌。欧洲政治的不确定性很大,如果马克龙和菲永在本周六都遭淘汰,市场将不得不调整对勒庞或梅朗雄当选对法国政治以及整个欧洲的影响。

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