每日更新 - 美联储 The Daily Update - Fed

作为“谣言时买入,事实时卖出”这一原则的一个清楚案例,联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)昨晚将联邦基金利率目标上调了25个基点,这引发了美国国债、股票、新兴市场外汇、拉美市场、中东和远东地区债券市场的反弹。

紧随利率上调,美联储发布了一份比此前预期要温和得多的声明。在公告发布后的记者招待会上,美联储主席珍妮特×耶伦表示:“目标政策利率有可能会根据预测结果而上调。就这一点而言,只要经济发展保持在正常轨道,我们预料利率不会加速上调;所以,我们维持对货币政策的展望,也就是,本年度再加息两次,明年再加息两次。”

当然,市场仍然对进一步加息保持乐观,并且由于在过去的两年里一直在加息,市场继续消化掉更低的利率。如果让我们看一下美联储的“点阵图”路径,显示联邦基金利率到今年底为2.25%,而2018年底为3%,比市场定价的隔夜利率掉期(OIS)高得多;这表明这一指标本年底为1.35%而2018年底为1.75%。打动我们的是,如果美联储本年度果真再加息两次(与目前的每一步上调25个基点保持一致),这将会把联邦基金利率推高到一个更高的水平1.5%,而不是根据“点阵图”介质路径推断出的2.25%,因此,考虑到耶伦的声明,这个指标看起来是一个并不精确的测度。

如上所述,美国国债在整个曲线上都出现了反弹,这引发了全球债券市场反弹,5年期收益率比昨天同期低13个基点,现在为2%,而10年期收益率比昨天同期低11个基点,现在为2.5%左右。基本上,我们一直在讲市场超跌,因为自从2月底以来10年期美国国债收益率已经上升了约20个基点,且考虑到特朗普政府在经济和政治上积极进取的预算前景,在今早的水平上,我们把美国国债利率置于公允价值。总体上,虽然我们仍然把收益率曲线的更长端视为最佳价值,但我们感觉当前的定价已经包含了风险溢价,且在风险调整的基础上,具有最高的潜在回报。

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