每日更新 - 法国大选近况 The Daily Update - French election update

4月23日法国大选首轮投票日即将到来,竞选局势看上去越来越势均力敌,如果没有人在首轮投票赢得半数以上得票,那么得票最多的前两位候选人将在5月7日参加第二轮投票。民调显示现在有四位候选人获得较大支持率:根据在本周早些时候Kantar Sofres的民调数据,埃曼努尔·马克隆(Emmanuel Macron)和玛丽娜·勒庞(Marine Le Pen)的支持率领先,均为24%,让-吕克·梅朗雄(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)的支持率为18%,弗朗索瓦·菲永(François Fillon)为17%。另外,菲永面临更多关于其妻四年前“吃空饷”的指控,仍在奋力扑火。

这次大选的投票率非常低,有报告显示大约有30%的潜在投票人会选择弃权/不投票/进行无效投票。勒庞和马克隆的支持率在民调中占据前两位,这也显示大量社会不满带来了改变的巨大可能。另外,要考虑到民调通常出现的误差幅度,Kantar Sofres民调中有24%的人支持马克隆,这些支持者中有55%的人确定自己的意向,而勒庞的支持者中有76%的人确定自己的选择。

有意思的是,对梅朗雄及其法国不屈服党的支持率一直在增加,而他的政策更具极端性:他在竞选中提出反对财政紧缩,把最低工资提高15%,对高收入者征收100%的税收,退出北约,并就退欧进行公投。10%的失业率以及超过23.6%的年轻人失业率导致社会局势非常紧张,这也很容易理解为什么他的竞选一直受到支持,并可能得到社会党的支持。社会党候选人伯努瓦•阿蒙(Benoît Hamon)仅获得约9%的支持率。

媒体对勒庞最近的言论大做文章。她不认为法国二战期间在冬季脚车竞赛场(Vel d'Hiv)将犹太人驱逐至纳粹集中营的事件中有罪,尽管前总统希拉克已在1995年承认了维希政府的共谋罪行。勒庞之后评论说,她“完全谴责”维希政府,但认为当时的法国合法政府流亡到了伦敦。勒庞在竞选中一直努力跟她更激进的父亲让-玛丽·勒庞(Jean-Marie Le Pen)拉开距离,而这个小插曲无疑对此起了无益的作用,但这对民调不会造成太大影响,很大比例的勒庞支持者都确定自己的选择。

市场一直低估了勒庞进入第二轮投票的风险,而基本情况是她很可能需要同独立候选人马克隆或菲永进行角逐,而民调显示后两者都有可能击败勒庞。法国政府债券利差约为72个基本点,达到4年来最高点,反应出更大的潜在风险。市场没有忽视梅朗雄和勒庞进入第二轮投票的可能,他们中任何一位都可能消极影响法国与欧洲的关系,他们的政策计划也更激进,而马卡隆和菲永的立场更为亲欧。

按照法国传统,议会选举在总统选举之后,也就是6月份。尽管现在看起来菲永不太可能当选,但如果当选可能带来更大的稳定性,因为他将在议会获得共和党的支持,而其他竞选人政党的议会席位较少,也就不太清楚他们政府的执政效果。

欧洲大陆有大量债权国,但我们仍倾向于用美元发行的欧洲债券,它们带来收益,避免了潜在的政治风险。另外,德国的通货膨胀压力越来越大,美联储的紧缩模式让欧洲央行越来越难以维持随和的政策立场,这都存在着风险

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