每日更新 - 中国政府进一步的债券内容 The Daily Update - Further China government bond inclusion

本周花旗集团(Citigroup Inc)宣布,从2018年2月1日起中国的在岸债券将纳入三个政府债券指数。这个消息跟随上个月从彭博巴克莱银行的固定收益指数公布新的平行全球指数,包括中国人民币计价证券。虽然在花旗指数的基金管理资产可能相对较小,但是新的权重将使很多既没有遵循人民币国际化的趋势也没有意识到中国债券市场规模的投资者感到震惊。根据花旗银行指出,中国在其现有新兴市场政府债券指数中的权重将从零上升到庞大的52.5%。

一旦被包含在内,一开始中国政府债券的转移规模 可能不大,但方向却很清楚。除非跟随这些指数的资金总体增加,否则将会偏离现有有利于中国的组成。在伦敦证交所,我们使用净外国资产作为衡量一个国家的总体资产或负债;中国在这个作为净债权国的措施上排名较前。相形之下,巴西,举例来说,是主要的债务人。作为投资者再平衡,这可能需要时间,其将会自然地从债务人转移到债权人,这对于纠正全球失衡具有重要影响性,因为它让再分配变得更加普遍。

我们目前没有投资岸债券市场,就只是因为我们首选的购买投资级流动美元债券和对冲离岸人民币(CHN)的战略。在我们的人民币债券战略中, 是非常有利益的。这并并不表示我们不认为在岸债券是具有吸引力的,但我们只是喜欢在其他地方来做投资。例如,一个月的CNH远期定价的隐含年化收益率约为7%(45天收的益率高达8.7%!),这超过了当地市场对类似信贷可以实现的任何收益质量。

大多数投资者,甚至世界上最大的公司,都没有人民币的现金头寸。如果这些投资者更有远见,他们会意识到,中国的离岸和岸上债券市场提供了机会,现在持有人民币资产的人有可能超过后来才持有的人。投资者可能需要时间来承认这个世界正在改变,但投资者未来将会比今天拥有更多人民币是必然的。

人民币虽然广泛认为相对较弱,但我们不同意这个想法。跟什么相比较弱?事实是,在过去12个月中,人民币兑美元和许多其他新兴货币下跌,但是在过去三年中,唯一的主要货币超越人民币的是日元,兑红筹获得约1.5%。

我们的评估认为投资者对人民币的相对实力有错误的认识,因此认为债券市场没有吸引力。这是對中國知觉的一大问题,这在很大程度上是由于国际投资者和新闻媒体误解中国官员的评论。中国有一个刺激人民币稳定或更强的动力,这信息已被国际投资者忽视。也许中国需要采取像美国这样强大的人民币政策,据称美元政策来强烈改变投资者的看法。

如果我们对人民币的未来抱有正确的看法,一个拥有大量经常账户盈余的国家看到其货币升值的世界,那么没有人民币指数的投资者可能会落后于包括中国货币在内的指数。所以,人民币强度可能导致基金经理的偏好转移,他们希望追踪指数,而不是使用世界第二大经济体货币的过时版本。

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