每日更新 - 国际货币基金组织 The Daily Update - International monetary fund

本周早些时候国际国币基金组织(IMF)上调了对英国经济发展的预期,这是IMF在承认英国退欧公投后的经济发展高于预期后,3个月以来第2次提高对英国经济发展的预期。上调后的预期显示英国在2017年的经济发展速度为2%,仅次于发达国家发展速度最快的美国。在上调后的一份报告中,IMF表示“英国经济发展平稳,自2016年6月退欧公投后的支出具有弹性”。IMF曾认为英国退欧公投后的经济增长率为1.1%,但今年一月份将其上调至1.5%。

除了对英国经济发展持乐观态度,IMF对全球经济也很有信心。它预期2017年全球经济发展速度为3.5%,2018年为3.6%。但也警告称可能存在隐患。IMF经济顾问奥布斯菲尔德认为“全球经济正在重拾发展动力,我们可能正处在一个拐点”,但警告说,“虽然形势转好,但二战后的全球经济关系体系面临极大的压力,尽管它整体带来了很大的益处,这是因为经济发展以及相应的经济调整在国家之间产生了不平等的利益和成本”,并补充说,“最大的一个威胁是贸易保护主义,这将导致贸易战争。有几大因素造成了对零和政策的政治支持,这主要发生在发达经济体之间,这些零和政策可能削弱国际贸易关系并影响更广范围的多边合作,这些因素包括全球经济自2010-2011年从金融危机复苏后处于低迷阶段,中等收入增长缓慢,结构性劳力市场混乱。”

IMF将贸易保护主义列为威胁全球经济的6大风险之一,另外的风险包括大幅放松的金融管制导致过渡承担冒险,超出了英国预期的加息水平,进而导致金融市场混乱。然而,到目前为止,最大的担忧仍是贸易保护主义,奥布斯菲尔德预测认为,“放弃对抗这些压力将导致自我伤害,让消费者和企业承受更大的成本,降低生产力,并因此降低家庭的整体实际收入。”

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.