每日更新 - 中东新发行债券/中国经济发展 The Daily Update - Middle East new issues and China growth

想必经常读我们文章的读者还记得几周前有一篇更新是沙特即将发行伊斯兰债券KSA,该债券已于上周发行,共筹资90亿美元,由5年期和10年期债券组成,差价分别为100bps和140bps,中价互换和收益率分别为2.894%和3.628%。由于其A1评级文件并没有提供与我们已持有的沙特政府国际债券相关的充分收益和信用缓冲,因此我们没有在投资组合中添加上述任何一支债券。最新发行的10年期伊斯兰债券2027的收益率为3.628%,同我们持有的2026债券(收益率3.25%)一致,但信用等级缓冲更小,为2.37级。我们将继续监控这些债券,但我们感到这些债券不能提供与目前持股(收益率7.3%)相关的充足风险收益。

我们的投资组合中的确有一支先于KSA发行的债券——由阿布扎比主权财富基金Mubadala发行的总额15亿美元的债券。该国有投资工具发行了7年期和12年期债券,较其国债收益的差价分别为125bps和165bps,这两支Aa2级债券现在的收益较发行时收紧了18bps和23bps,分别为6.4%和11.5%,也提供3.7和4.5信用等级的风险防护。由于Mubadala完全由酋长国所有和运营,并受到隐形的财务支持,因此其评级与酋长国的评级一致。阿布扎比酋长国正在从依赖油气的经济模式转型到多元化经济,该公司在其中发挥着重要作用,为诸如医院和大学等社会经济项目提供融资,并联合国际企业开发生产设备,增加当地的就业机会。

中国最近发布的数据显示今年第1季度的经济表现强劲,三月份的进出口、零售、固定资产和工业生产等领域均超出市场预期。2017年第1季度的GDP增长率为6.9%(预期是6.8%)。上季度的服务业对GDP的贡献率约为65%,消费仍表现强劲,尤其是对奢侈产品和服务的需求,这也无疑帮助政府避免经济发展单纯依靠投资。我们预期经济发展势头在近期仍会保持下去。随着硬着陆的风险减弱,资本外流压力显著减缓,更为紧缩的货币政策可能开始发挥作用。关于人民币,我们预期央行会继续保持对美元的汇率稳定,而最近美元走软,让这变得轻松了一些。另外,中国和美国继续执行百日计划,我们预期北京最不希望的就是被列为货币操纵国;顺便一提,在美国财政部最近发布的国际经济政策与汇率报告中,并没有将中国列为货币操作国。

最后,英国首相特雷莎·梅指出了威斯敏斯特的内部分裂,不情愿地号召在6月8日进行提前选举。距选举还有50天,尽管曾反复声明在2020年下次投票前不会再有选举。她强调了威斯敏斯特的内部分歧将如何“妨碍成功退欧”,表示将在议会展开投票,并补充说“我们需要一次大选,现在就需要”。在她的声明发表之前,英镑下跌0.22%,截止本文发稿,英镑止跌反弹,达到2个半月来的最高值。

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