每日更新 - 北美自贸协定 The Daily Update - NAFTA

也许最近美国医改失败之后,行政表现与竞选口号相违的事实对唐纳德·特朗普很不利,因为至少从目前来看,他在很多问题的立场似乎有所软化。特朗普一直不断谴责北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA),称它是一个“灾难”,并威胁要退出该协定,且不会同墨西哥和加拿大达成有意义的改变。这些评论以及今年早些时候退出跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP),都让预测者将贸易保护主义作为全球未来发展的关键风险。然而,特朗普最近与习近平会面之后,美国财政部并没有将中国列为货币操纵国,3月30日向国会提交的草函中概述了该届政府在NAFTA的总体谈判目标,显示有可能采取更具建设性的途径。

很显然,需要按正确的政治流程办事让特朗普非常受挫,他在提及NAFTA时说,“比如我们想立即同墨西哥谈判,但规定要求我们必须等很长时间,你得通知国会,通知后,还要等着被批准,而且100天内不能跟他们讲话。整件事太荒谬了。”另外,特朗普的美国侯任贸易办公室代表罗伯特·莱特希泽还在等待参议院的确认。

特朗普政府的草函中说:“我们将与国会密切协商,推动我们的谈判立场,确保与国会优先级和目标一致”。该草函支持一些可有效推行的新规则和修订规则,但也有一些领域可能有争执,例如实现“税收待遇平等化”。草函推动该届政府的“购买美国货”政策,追求“原产地原则,来确保贸易协定能推动在美国进行生产并提供就业”,“建立政府采购规则,使其符合美国法律以及本届政府的国内采购政策”。

草函也涉及“贸易救济措施”,提议“寻求建立保护机制,如果增加从NAFTA国家的进口对美国造成重大损失或者对国内工业造成严重损失威胁,则应允许临时撤销关税优惠”。另一个更具争议的立场建议“撤销第19条反倾销和反补贴税的争端纠纷政策,这是鉴于美国经验,陪审团未能采用合适的审议标准和适用法律,违反常规的陪审团决策未能得到有效审议和纠正”。

但一项令人鼓舞的报道消息称,伊尔德方索·瓜哈尔多(Ildefonso Guajardo)——墨西哥经济部长同时也是主要贸易谈判人,认为如果能在七月底前启动谈判,将有希望在2018年早期达成协议。考虑到墨西哥将在2018年举行大选,协议达成得越早越好。

自今年一月份低点以来,墨西哥比索和债券已经从极度超卖的水平重新定价,这主要由于对贸易战争的担忧以及同美国关系的恶化:截止发稿,比索对美元约为18.83,接近2016年十月底特朗普当选前的水平,今年一月份这个数字是21.96。墨西哥主权债券以及准主权债墨西哥石油公司债券Pemex,也一直有不错的表现:截止发稿,美元发行的墨西哥主权债券2046收益率为4.6%,Pemex 2044的收益率为5.5%,分别比一月份的最低点提高了8.4点和9.8点。

正如巴菲特那句名言,“在别人贪婪的时候恐惧,在别人恐惧的时候贪婪。”

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