每日更新 - 中美合作 The Daily Update - Sino-US collaboration

中国媒体称其国家主席习近平和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的会面“非常成功”,避而不谈美国在接待宴会前夕对叙利亚发起的空袭。一切进行得非常顺利,习近平也表示双方“有了深入的了解,初步建立了有效的关系和友谊”,在一份备忘录中,特朗普夸张地说,已经“建立”了“卓越的关系”,他相信“大量潜在的糟糕问题已经不复存在”。这也许让大量记者安静了下来,因为他们正在努力寻找各种破坏性的“困难”对话。

两国领导人唯一不能完全达成一致的是朝鲜问题。实际上,中国人民解放军一夜之间转移了15万军队到中朝边界,以防“意外情况”发生。尚不清楚这将是什么意外情况,但在上周特朗普下令袭击叙利亚后,有预测认为他可能会打击金正恩;他上周曾说“如果中国不解决朝鲜问题,我们解决”。我们将密切关注该问题。

双方也讨论了贸易问题,似乎很倾向于采用百日计划来解决全球最大的两个经济体之间的贸易失衡问题。基本上来看,特朗普的首要目标是减少同中国3470亿美元的贸易逆差问题。有两种主要的实现途径:第一种,对从中国进口的产品施加惩罚性关税,该手段特朗普政府已经再三提及,也就是要发起一场贸易战争。第二种,也是最让人期望的方式,中国增加对美国产品的进口,尤其是习近平近期持开放态度的服务型产品,他一直鼓励发展第三产业,而美国在该领域具有竞争优势,我们认为这是一种双赢。至于进口的产品,考虑到中国对高科技产品的潜在需求,美国也可以放松对出口中国的高科技产品的限制,从而增加向中国的出口额。中国可能废除在2003年制定的进口美国牛肉禁令,这也会起到一定积极效果。

正如我们之前提到的,特朗普上任带来的欢愉感看上去非常脆弱,不但因为失败的医疗改革尝试,也因为艰巨的税收改革以及价值1万亿美元的(未来十年)基础设施建设项目是否会获得通过,还面临重重阻碍。对基础设施进行财政拨款这一问题很有意义,实际上,对该决策的积极态度一定程度上导致了2016年第1季度的股市反弹。但是,已经很庞大的20万亿政府债务上限(GDP的106%)可能不允许再进行如此巨大的财政开支。另外,根据美国土木工程师学会的报道,美国存在巨大的短期和长期融资差距;据报道,2006~2025年间差距达到3万亿美元,从去年到2040年差距达到10万亿美元。这包括一些非常基本的基础设施建设,例如陆上运输、水、电力等。实际上,报告强调如果基础设施继续不得到改善,到2025年美国的GDP将损失高达4万亿美元!这的确是个大难题。中国可以参与该领域,通过投资项目为美国提供帮助,就像它在全球其他地方的做法一样。

中国牵头发起的亚洲基础设施投资银行以及其他中国政策性银行,虽然一直受到前任总统奥巴马的冷遇,但可以帮助特朗普实现他建设基础设施的承诺。亚投行还可以帮助美国的制造业恢复生机,而复兴制造业也是特朗普的承诺之一。美国可以申请加入亚投行,后者对成员国项目提供优惠支持;国际开发银行主席也一直向美国敞开大门。也许特朗普对这个观点比较开放,实际上,去年他的一个资深顾问(James Woolsey)把奥巴马拒绝加入亚投行称为是“战略性错误”。

毫无疑问,市场将关注中美两国不断发展的关系与合作,两国要实现巨大的改革目标,必然要彼此互相支持。

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