每日更新 - 美国家庭和房地产债务风险 The Daily Update - US household and housing debt risks

上周,纽约联邦储备银行发布了关于美国家庭债务与信用的季度报告。美国家庭债务增加到12.58万亿美元,信用卡欠款、学贷和房贷都有增长。这意味着,家庭债务比上季度增长了1.8%,而绝对债务经过近年来的逐步增长,现在回到了2008年的水平。2016年美国家庭借贷总额为4600亿美元,但就该数值本身来看,这几乎不是一个有警告性的信号,尤其是家庭债务占GDP的百分比远低于2008年约90%的水平。尽管如此,如果一连串相关指标持续恶化,房地产和家庭债务领域可在美国和全球形成更广范的风险规避环境。

美国房地产市场是一个拥有26万亿美元的资产类别,远大于美国的股票市场。尽管近年来股票市场和某些热点房地产聚集,但过去三年来美国房价平均水平处于平稳状态。很有必要指出的是,在总体家庭债务增长的同时,在2016年底住房抵押贷款违约率在经历了连续六年的持续下降后,出现了剧烈增长(全球金融危机爆发后的几年里,住房抵押贷款违约和拖欠现象一直在增加。)这些是2008年市场崩溃的先行迹象,它们从2006年早期开始就在不断增长。在2016年第4季度,美国优质贷款拖欠率从2.6%增长到3.1%。

违约率自从2010年早期达到峰值7.3%,只有几个独立的季度出现轻微的违约增长,都没有达到最近的这个规模,也都在紧接的下个月中回落。考虑到我们正在接近近期历史平均水平(约2.5%,发生金融危机之前的十年),这可能只是一个变动,未来的违约率不会大幅偏离目前水平。但是考虑到高水平的家庭负债总额以及预期利率和潜在生活成本的增加,也可能有更多的家庭勉强按时支付按揭贷款(即使由于采用固定利率按揭数额并没有增加)。考虑到相对强劲的美国就业和经济数据,以及距离美联储首次加息仅过去4个季度(经历了7年的0~0.25%的利率区间,以及1%的微小增长),如果那些挣扎的家庭是由于这些吃紧的经济情况导致的,那么家庭负债的敏感性就会使美联储走向正常化的速度放慢。

一些针对国家债务情况的评估过于关注政府债务,未能有效地兼顾国家的整体净外债(包括家庭和企业债务)。例如,只考虑日本庞大的政府债务而不合理地兼顾日本的家庭储蓄,会形成日本是净债务国的结论,但实际情况并非如此。亦或者,没有充分考虑到,一些国家(例如爱尔兰)政府在金融危机后突然接管,导致了其金融业债务未能交叉感染。我们仍推荐通过国外净资产基线的途径来审查国家债务情况:通过这种方式来考虑每个领域的债务风险。

当一个国家是净债权国(或低水平的净债务国),即使一个领域严重负债,它在国内的负债也是良性的,风险也通常较小,更具可管理性(例如,可以比照日本债务与希腊债务)。当一个国家有庞大的净外债,通常也会多个领域(公共、企业和家庭)严重负债。这样的话,就很难管理,很快会变得不可管理。实际上,尽管美国的公共债务接近20万亿美元、家庭负债接近13万亿美元,但美国实际上是不太严重的净外债国(根据我们的NFA分析属于3星)。整体而言,美国私营部门的负债水平并不严重。美国政府的负债很重,但他们在国际市场中占有优势地位,眼下只是从国会边缘政策来看处于风险状态。家庭负债和面临风险(包括未受政府保障的抵押债务)的金融实体,都是应监控的更具风险的领域。评估它们以及家庭和企业贷款情况,是我们自上而下的分析的一部分,不过这对未来季度的作用可能会更重要。

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