每日更新 - 美国提高利率,但长期经济增长和信誉降低 The Daily Update - US rising rates but lower long term growth and creditworthiness

预计联邦基金目标利率今天晚些时候将上调,伴随着近期强劲的数据,激进的官方评论以及外部风险的减弱,期货市场的指数已经上涨了25个基点。事实上,随着黑石的债券ETF以100亿美元的价格卖空,公告的波动(如果有的话)可能会以任何一种方式进行。而公告的焦点将在于未来的上涨轨道以及未来资产负债表缩减的措辞。考虑到2016年预期将有3到4次加息(且考虑有逐步的回复),今天的加息支持了本年度对美联储的一个类似预期。目前来看,本年度更可能会有3次加息,而不是4次,我们预料资产负债表的任何缩减都会伴随着下一次加息,其意义会被淡化。但是不管未来上涨轨道如何,更长期的目标利率都将限制在3%左右。这是一个通常较少提及的重要点数。美联储的拥护者蒂姆×杜伊总结道:“对中性利率的更高估计比仅仅只是稍微加速达到中性利率要激进得多”。

全球金融危机爆发后,联邦基金目标利率从2%骤降到0.25%,这个水平几乎保持了7年时间并逐渐上升到0.75%(如果您正在阅读这份美联储后的公告,这个数字或许为1%)。但是这一次,当前利率水平过去一段时间保持不变,而现在已经开始上调,从而联邦基金长期目标利率(点阵图所暗示)已经从2012年的4.25%稳步降低到目前的仅仅3%。虽然12月份的平均数据显示利率有轻微上升,但这大部分要归因于得票率从2.5%上升到2.75%。 即使是有新成员拥有投票权,我们仍预料长期目标利率将保持在3%左右这个水平;就这点来说,联邦基金未来的任何加息行为在熊市趋平的情境下都更有可能对短期国债构成风险。这也为其它更短期债务带来了更为艰难的融资条件,尤其是过度依赖更短期融资且信誉较低的主权国家或公司。

根据我们的投资理念,所有新兴市场债务所面临的非对称风险是另一个值得强调的考虑因素;这也解释了我们为什么把目标指向高等级的信用且偏好来自净债权国家的主权和准主权信用。近些年,对收益的追逐有助于刺激新兴市场债务的增加。根据最近一份来自摩根大通的报告,新兴市场地方债务总额已经增加到16.3万亿美元;这个数字看起来很巨大,因为它相当于发达市场投资级公司债务总额(5.5万亿美元)的3倍。面对着如此巨额的数字,这不禁让人担忧,面临美国国内利率上升以及对债券的负面情绪上升,这种债务堆积一致性地显得很脆弱。

但是新兴市场的信誉度参差不齐;我们的确在许多国家都有投资,尤其是经过深思熟虑的新兴市场国家,这些国家不但是净债权国,而且人均GDP比许多发达市场国家还要高。“新兴市场”这个陈旧的术语可能具有误导性。不但这个术语,而且把新兴市场地方债务总额仅仅比为DM公司(Dolan Media)也具有误导性,因为这忽略了遍及发达市场的巨额的主权债务。发达市场国家的债务总额4倍于新兴市场国家,虽然前者总人口只有后者的四分之一。根据国际金融协会的数据,新兴市场目前债务总额为大约60万亿美元;而仅仅是美国公共债务总额就正在迅速逼近20万亿美元。考虑到目前美国国内的短期债务刺激和乐观情绪不太可能转化为更强劲的长期经济增长,且新兴市场内部存在的差异仍然为负债率并不太高的国家提供了增加收入的机会:所以,我们仍然致力于在具备更高信用等级的市场进行有吸引力的且经过风险调整后的价值投资和更长期投资。

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