每日更新 - 特朗普上任100天 The Daily Update - 100 days of Trump

本周末特朗普上任100天,最近一集《辛普森一家》诙谐地说,“我们回家的路已经走了6.8%”。新总统上任前100天,其选举期间的信誉和宣传效果都还没有消散,也未受到中期选举宣传的干扰,因此通常认为这段时间很出政绩。但是,也许这种期望过高了,尤其是比照当年罗斯福创下的标准:上世纪大萧条中期,面对共和党和企业的强烈反对,富兰克林·罗斯福强力推行其新政。另外,数百个人员提名有待参议院确认,这形成了巨大挑战,尤其是特朗普内阁较往届更缺乏经验,也让头一百天很难取得实质性进展。到目前为止,特朗普提名的58名高级政府官员只有25得到了确认。不管怎样,美国已经更清楚本届政府在未来四年的发展方向,最基本的工作是通过目前共和党占多数的参众两院来系统地推进政策立法。

但重要的是,特朗普上任头三个月的成绩不但远落后于前任,也没有完成他竞选期间提出的“让美国再次伟大100天行动计划”。比较公平的做法是,把本届政府的成绩同其竞选时承诺的28项目标进行对比。以下用数字形式展示了特朗普对自己所设目标的实现程度:治理政府腐败(2/6),保护美国工人(3/7),恢复安全和宪政法制(1/5)。而关于“上任头100天提出10项政策以供核准推行”,只提出了一项,另有三项只有微弱的进展。合计总分是6/28,成功率刚刚过20%,前提还是假定每项目标都均等地完成了。

尴尬的是,唯一提出的政策“取消及替代奥巴马医改方案”甚至都没有进入投票流程。也许这项失败是最大的挫折,因为它是包括“中产阶级减税和简化法案”在内的其他很多政策的基石。从昨天我们得到的消息来看,这些提议将面临很大一部分共和党人的强烈反对,他们不希望在不削减政府医疗开支和提高效率的前提下,进一步降税以及通过债务刺激来提高支出。

特朗普的各项目标没有实现有很多原因。像反对“移民庇护城市”和暂时禁止“来自恐怖易发地区的移民”,受到了法院的挑战。有一些承诺则是特朗普自己撤回的,例如“把中国列为汇率操纵国”,又如今天已确认美国不会退出北美自由贸易协定,而是会推动与墨西哥和加拿大达成更优的贸易条款,这是很让人欢迎的做法。

还有九个月的时间让本届政府在第一个执政年内推动取得一些重大成绩,我们可以预期到时会完成更多最初设置的目标。而跟金融市场最相关的那些政策似乎越来越重要。4月29日特朗普上任100天,也是国会和特朗普就筹资措施达成一致的最后期限。如果最不可能的事情发生了,双方没有达成共识而导致政府关门,只能尴尬地说明该届政府还没有找到自己的节奏。

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