每日新闻更新 - 第172届OPEC大会和海湾合作委员会 - OPEC 172 and GCC

昨天,第172届OPEC大会在维也纳炸开,OPEC国家和核心非OPEC成员国宣布将减产协议延长9个月至2018年3月31日。此前协议预期减产180万桶/日。沙特阿拉伯能源部长法力赫(Khalid Al-Falih)表示,预期年底石油库存将下降至五年平均水平以下,但由于第1季度通常产量较少,因此将减产协议延长至三月底是合理的。没有提及退出战略,仅说明在今年11月底到2018年将再审核情况。消息发布后截至本文发稿,布伦特原油每桶价格为51.75美元,但在此次会议前石油价格受大量有利因素的影响已大幅提升,会议消息的公布并没有超出预期。

美国页岩生产商的供应量提高,这仍然是问题,让OPEC减少库存的预期看到一点乐观面,尽管仍有大幅减产来支撑油价保持在50美元/桶。从首次宣布11月份减产后,美国日产量预计增长了60万桶。美国能源信息署(EIA)预计2017年美国原油平均日产量将从2016年的890万桶提高到930万桶,2018年可能进一步提高到1000万桶。

更强劲的石油价格环境有益于石油生产国的信用评级,尤其是跟美元挂钩的海湾合作委员会(GCC)成员国,降低的石油价格已经让财政平衡变成财政赤字,并削弱了当前的账户状况。财政与油价收支相抵情况在该地区各有不同,只有科威特维持在50美元为收支相抵,卡塔尔紧随其后为在55元每桶。相比之下,巴林和阿曼要求油价98美元和79美元,这也反映了其较弱的信用等级。沙特阿拉伯提出74美元的价格,但其财政状况总体更强势。巴林被评为次级投资等级(穆迪将其评为Ba2),成为GCC地区主权评级最弱的国家,因为不仅其财政赤字面临压力,而且穆迪预计其外汇储备和主权财富基金只相当于4.2年的经常项目赤字,而沙特阿拉伯的这个数字是30.5年。穆迪还预测巴林的外债与GDP之比为146.6%,这非常脆弱,而沙特阿拉伯的这个数字是24.8%,科威特是29.5%。卡塔尔(Aa2)、科威特(Aa2)和沙特阿拉伯(A1)因强有力的资产缓冲和海外净资产而没有受到影响。

俄罗斯一直是签署减产协议的核心非OPEC成员国之一,也会因此受益,其今年国家财政预算采用的石油价格是40美元/桶。但俄罗斯更不易于受低油价的影响,因为汇率灵活性更大,可通过卢布走弱来进行缓冲。

有意思的是,尽管卡塔尔、沙特和俄罗斯在过去几年发行的准主权欧元债券表现卓越,但他们仍为投资市场提供了一些更有吸引力的机会。例如,卡塔尔的State of Qatar 2040(6.4%)收益率为4.2%,4.7档缓冲,最佳评级为Aa2;沙特的Saudi Electricity 2044(5.5%)最近评级下降至A2,收益率仍为5.07%,3.7档缓冲。

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