每日新闻更新 - 澳大利亚 The Daily Update - Australia

本周早些时候,澳大利亚公布了2017-2018年度最新财政预算,预计将有294亿澳大利元的赤字,占GDP1.6%,比年中预测的287亿略有增加。财政预算轻微收紧,2020-21年可能实现盈余(74亿澳大利元,占GDP的0.4%),这也许是维持Aaa评级的必要条件。一些报告发现,预算锁定价值700亿澳大利元的10年基础设施,因此更多的是对支持发展而不是直接刺激。该预算默认2017/18的GDP增长率为2.75%,并在之后增加到3%,这将是有利的一面。例如,穆迪预测未来几年澳大利亚真实的GDP增长率在2.5%-2.7%之间。另一个有争议的假设是最近一直面临压力的铁矿价格:预算假设铁矿价格到十二月份平均每吨66美元,到2018年三月份降到每吨55美元。但如果价格下降比预期提前6个月,将使税收收入减少超过4亿澳大利亚元。

在预算公布后,穆迪评论认为澳大利亚的财政力量“非常大”,预算强调在这个十年尾期实现中央政府预算平衡。穆迪预期2018财年的政府债务占GDP的比例将从2017年的39.7%增长到42.4%,这符合Aaa中位数评级。然而,他们也发现政府预期“增加财政收入在GDP的占比,但在过去三年里并没有出现这个趋势。2021财年占GDP的26%,达到自2006财年以来的收入与GDP之比的最高值,高出过去20年的平均水平。相反,我们预测未来两者之比将保持平稳水平。”

另一个因素就是对消费税的依赖增加,如果房地产市场保持低迷,这一定程度上会有风险。有怀疑认为是否消费会在三月零售销售额数据环比下降0.1%后放缓,由于消费者支出储蓄来支撑开支,导致储蓄率下降。家庭储蓄率从2016年第4季度的5.2%下降到第3季度的6.3%。家庭负担能力仍是热门问题,这也毫不让人惊讶,因为预测悉尼的物价与收入比达到12,是全球第二昂贵的城市,墨尔本位列第四。预算措施看上去不足以解决这个问题。

也许更让人感兴趣的是预算对四大银行的影响。麦格理银行背负这6个基点的负债缓慢前行(第1层资本和政府保证储蓄),这处罚了银行对于零售融资来源的依赖。政府预测未来4年将增加62亿澳大利亚元,或者目标银行税后年利润的5%。不无惊讶,股票价格有所上升,尽管债券投资者惠誉认为这是下调银行信用,“但不足以大道立即产生效果”。问题是,它是否会以提高贷款利率的形式转嫁到消费者身上?银行今年已经面临更高的融资成本,并协同澳洲央行提高了贷款利率,但规划竞争审查会让这项策略很难前行。

但如同以往,澳大利亚的致命要害在于对海外资金的依赖。根据我们的预测,澳大利亚纯海外债务高出GDP的50%界点,IMF调查认为该临界值与日益增加的外部风险有关,让它避开了投资视角。一段时间的风险偏好增加、再杠杆化以及颇具挑衅的央行亮华宽松,造成水涨船高,投资者现在应留意央行,尤其是美联储,开始区去杠杆,这意味着较之高负债国家,我们将继续倾向于债权国。

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