每日更新 - 恶化的美国数据与联邦 The Daily Update - Deteriorating US data and the Fed

鉴于本周有公共假日,最能引人关注的新闻似乎就是将于明天结束的美联储会议。虽然并没有加息的预期,期货市场目前定价低于15%,但美联储委员会对期货指南的言论将很值得关注,尤其是在一组特别微弱的数据公布后。

众多已公布的美国经济数据点均低于预期,包括个人收入、人格支出、美联储支持的通胀数据和个人消费支出数据。三月份个人消费支出同比上涨1.6%,低于目标值2%,二月份的该数据为2.1%。明尼阿波利斯联邦储蓄银行行长Neel Kashkari说,“过去的五六年里,美联储一直预测通货膨胀要来了,但这些预测最终都证明是错的。”同时,第一季度的年度GDP也低于预期,同比增长率为0.7%,去年高达2.1%。最近公布的四月份ISM制造业数据也让人失望,降到54.8,尽管也在扩张,但低于三月份,也低于市场预期值56.5。全新订单和就业分支指数是三月数据下滑的主要原因,但也在合理有效的增长水平上。

随着经济数据的恶化,尽管六月份加息几率目前看超过71%,但我们怀疑明天的FOMC声明不会明确说明下月加息。我们不期望获得任何关于美联储将在多大程度上缩减资产负债表的材料。美联储前主席伯南克昨天表示,他期望央行能将4.5万亿美元的债务减半,并表示“我认为他们的目标在2.3-2.7万亿美元”。然而,伯南克补充说,他怀疑1万亿美元的预发金融危机水平很快都会达到。

最近没有数据显示美国经济比一年前有任何明显好转,然而在我们看来,美联储希望在弧线前方,并旨在进入规范化阶段,以便提高在下一个经济下行期降低利率的灵活性,这可能不是太遥远的事情。然而,美国财长史蒂芬•姆钦昨天说,美国有潜力在两年内通过税收改革、管理救助和更公平的贸易政策,进入3%的增长阶段。同时,伯南克建议美国的经济增长率不能超过3%。

我们将期待本周晚些时候发布的一些关键经济数据,这包括就业数据,市场最近增加了超过19万个岗位失业,失业率增长到4.6%。

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