每日新闻更新 - 联邦公开市场委员会 The Daily Update - FOMC

昨晚美联储公布了联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)五月会议纪要,利率政策比预期温和。大部分委员认为“不久后”加息是合适的,其他委员认为应谨慎等待更多证据,以确定第一季度经济下滑时暂时的。美联储预期未来几个月消费者支出将反弹,然而一些委员担忧美联储通胀目标的实现进度可能放缓。

 我们认为会议纪要中有些描述值得注意。首先“委员普遍认为应谨慎等待其他证据,确定最近经济发展放缓是暂时的,之后再退出宽松” 。另外“多数委员认为如果经济增长符合预期,美联储‘不久后’再次退出宽松是合适的”。

六月份OIS期货市场价格增幅达到峰值约92%,我们认为这是正常的,目前看来如果数据继续走弱,美联储政策可能会略有宽松。还有20天就召开六月份会议,我们将陆续看到一系列一级数据,例如6月2日的非农业就业数据,这些数据可能会改变美联储目前的政策。

市场比较关心的另一个问题是“资产负债表问题”,以及停止再投资的时间和速度。从会议纪要可以看出,缩表可能比预期提前。根据一些条款描述,例如 “今年开始缩减美联储的有价证券总存量是合适的”,这说明美联储实际上同意采取该措施,并可能提前进行, 但缩表可能经历相当长的时间,可能伴随加息也可能没有加息

 尽管“过去的表现不能代表未来”,但从1950年以来美联储在13个场合中采取加息,其中有10次导致经济衰退,其他3次造成“软着陆”(因为都在经济周期的早期)。本质上,美联储从没有阻止过衰退的发生,尤其是没有在今天这样成熟的经济周期内阻止过衰退。

所以美联储面临艰难的挑战,要同时妥善处理资产负债表、加息、退出宽松政策。

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