每日更新 - 法国大选/意大利主权债务评级下降 The Daily Update - French election / Italy downgrade

五十多年来法国大选首次出现主流政党候选人未能进入决胜投票。独立候选人马克龙和极右翼候选人勒庞在首轮投票中胜出,将在第二轮投票中展开竞逐。在第一轮投票中,马克龙获得了23.75%的投票支持,勒庞获得了21.53%的支持。投票结果一公布,保守党候选人菲永(支持率低于20%)立即表示支持马克龙,认为除了反对极右翼没有其他选择。竞争对手社会党和保守党候选人也纷纷支持马克龙,鼓励各自的支持者抵制勒庞的反移民和反欧盟政策。

投票结果公布几小时内,勒庞所在的国民阵线党副主席菲利波(Florian Philippot)就开始中伤泼污,说“马克龙不是爱国人士,他廉价出售国有企业,还批评法国文化”,认为马克龙在法国著名的圆亭咖啡馆(Café de la Rotonde)进行庆祝是对法国人民的蔑视。我们认为在未来几周法国竞选活动绝不会乏味。

周五惠誉评级公司宣布对意大利主权债务评级下调一档至BBB级,跟穆迪的评级一致,比标准普尔的评级高一档,其下调评级的原因包括金融问题、经济发展、财政下滑、弱势政府以及2018大选前的政治风险。评级下调并不出人意外,因为惠誉早在去年十月份就已经把意大利列入负面展望。去年意大利的公共债务创下纪录,达到GDP的130%,在欧元区中只有希腊的负债率高于这个数字。

惠誉认为,“意大利长期财政下滑,一再后置财政改革,经济发展微弱,未能降低极高的一般政府债务,面临更多的潜在不利冲击。同时,政治风险增加,金融领域持续疲软,12月份以来已对三家银行提出有规划对公共干预。”

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.