每日更新 - 韩国大选 The Daily Update - Korean elections - A new moon

保守派总统和政府已经掌控韩国长达十个年头,但下周这似乎要改变了。朝鲜半岛南端手持选举权的人们将展示对近期自由韩国党丑闻的不满。即使那些已经对投票失去信心的人,也预期韩国民主党总统候选人文在寅会在下周二的大选中稳操胜券。民调显示,文在寅的支持率以两位数字遥遥领先,他的支持率是44%,安哲秀为23%,洪准杓为13%。文在寅以前曾担任人权律师,在2012年总统大选中得票数稍逊于朴槿惠而败北,他当时得到安哲秀的支持,而现在安哲秀是他最激烈的竞争对手。安哲秀创建了一家成功的软件公司,并在2016年创建了人民党,公园围墙上张满了对他的支持,而且有时还会在民调中领先。但不到一周前,文在寅的支持率就一直保持大步领先。

由于前总统朴槿惠因受贿指控遭到弹劾,因此谁能在5月9日得到最多的投票,谁就能立即走马上任。文在寅的民主党在国民大会中拥有广泛的行政权力,但只为他的竞选需求提供了些许支持。特别值得关注的是,内阁换届将明显影响与朝鲜相关的国际政策。如果文在寅发挥自己的能力,践行同朝鲜建立广泛睦邻友好关系的雄心壮志,这将与特朗普最近在该地区的强硬政策形成鲜明对比。很难预测在现实中抚平这些差异的难度,但整体来看,市场对文在寅胜出的预期反应是良性的。

在韩国国内,文在寅一直呼吁10万亿韩圆的经济刺激计划以及广泛的企业管理改革,后者有助于清理韩国财团与政府间的腐败与裙带关系。同样重要的是,更稳定的政治环境有益于未来数年经济的发展。但这需要谨慎处理,文在寅的幸运之星要一路相照,他才能对强大的韩国财团进行真正的改革。韩国GDP以及韩国综合指数的50%都来自韩国财团。即使最近发生的总统丑闻以及围绕朝鲜产生的消极新闻,韩国综合指数也仅仅从一直以来的高点下降了一个百分点,韩圆也一直很坚挺。股票市场似乎也没有因为大财团可能丧失的纳税优势而下跌。

老龄化社会和巨大的家庭债务一直是值得监控的问题,但近年来韩国的经常账户盈余一直在健康增长,经济增长速度预期超过2.5%,通胀率维持在1.3%。而根据我们的分析,韩国的外债也是最低的。另外,凭借很多大型企业、准主权财富以及信誉级为Aa2的政府评级,韩国为我们提供了众多符合我们投资流程和当前展望的项目。我们过去持有多种韩国提供相对价值的债券,近年来它们在其他地区以高价交易,这清晰地提供了更具吸引力的风险奖励。我们最近发现一些过去偏好的韩国债券开始带来更高的价值。我们的投资流程包括相对价值模型以及信用和宏观分析,将帮助识别任何可以加入我们投资组合的有足够吸引力的债券。

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