每日新闻更新 - 美国非农就业人口 The Daily Update - NFPR

今天显示,四月份非农业就业人口增加21.1万,高出预期值19万,上个月减少数值从1.9万调整到7.9万。失业率从三月份的4.5%降到4.4%,参与率从上月的63%降到62.9%。第1季度雇佣成本指数高于预期(环比3.2%,同比2.4%),平均小时费同比增长2.5%,实现喜人折中结果,对虽然并不火热但仍在发展中的市场形成支持。第1季度的就业数据有所偏移,因为随着天气变暖,就业岗位也比一月和二月要多,尤其是在建筑行业,三月份偏低的数据显然反映了一些“前期吃重”。重要的是,因为随着经济朝充分就业发展,预期就业率增长放缓,因此需要结合薪资数据查看。

很显然,另一个增长率会在六月时有所增长。美联储四月会议声明认为最近一系列疲弱数据只是暂时结果:虽然政策依赖于数据,但持续的经济疲弱或重大地缘政治冲击将使美联储在今年偏离额外25个基点峰值。通胀指标到目前为止都是良性的:例如,三月份核心个人消费支出同比增长1.6%,尽管联邦公开市场委员会声明认为通胀接近2%的长期目标。最近疲弱的石油和商品价格也有助于缓解通胀预期。

目前没有任何关于特朗普税收改革和财政刺激方案的详细信息,也很难得知国会将通过他的哪些政策,因此我们很难相信美国的经济增长会提振到3%以上的水平:糟糕的人口统计结果、经济停滞以及全球债务水平升级等结构性趋势,仍根深蒂固。昨天,特朗普医疗改革方案经过第二次投票终于在国会通过,但还需参议院通过才能真正合法。

我们认为美联储将领先曲线,收益率曲线将扁平化,因此我们将继续支持定位曲线远端。目前市场关注点似乎在美联储发言人的评论:美联储副主席Stanley Fischer今天晚些时候将发表货币政策讲话。届时Janet Yellen也会发言,但不确定她是否会提供多少关于货币政策的洞察,因为她的发言内容为“女性参与经济的125年”。贸易恐慌指数达到近十年最低,市场逐步提高联邦资金利率,风险偏好也得到提升。

欧洲民调显示马克龙将以大幅优势战胜勒庞,在周日赢得法国大选的最终投票。

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