每日新闻更新 - 阿曼努力实现经济多元化 The Daily Update - Oman's push to diversify

上周末,标准普尔将阿曼苏丹国主权信用评级下调至BB+,造成石油价格下降,进而导致其国外净资产缩减。另外两家主流评级机构穆迪和惠誉仍将阿曼信用评为投资级别(IG),分别给予其Baa1(稳定)和BBB(稳定)的评级。由于IG级别指数要求债券至少获得三大主流评级机构中两家给予的IG评级,再加上阿曼主权财富曲线相对广泛地按利率进行交易,我们认为价格行为有限。然而请注意,我们并不把IG指数作为持股参考,实际上我们的投资组合中大部分并不包括该指数,相反,我们参考相对价值、价差缓冲和所有权强度。

我们目前持有阿曼政府债券2027(5.375%)和2047(6.5%),都属于收益最高的投资级别债券,收益率分别为4.9%和6%。这两支债券的穆迪信用评级为Baa1,提供了很有吸引力的风险调整预期回报率,分别为10%和20%,更重要的是,拥有大约3.5个信用缓冲档。除此之外,我们还持有该国电网的国有融资工具Lamar Funding 2025(3.958%),但也被降级一档至BB+,但穆迪仍将其评为Baa1。该债券的交易高出美国国债+255bps,而类似债券交易接近135bps,这说明该债券潜在资本增值约10个基本点,可达到我们所认为的公平价值。

我们青睐的另一支新股来自同一准主权发行者阿曼电力Oman Electricity 5.196% 2027。穆迪对其评级为Baa1,标普和惠誉没有对其评级,该债券未包含在IG指数中,但我们从协商该协议的银行获悉,该债券位于曲线底部,并获得了大量的海湾合作理事会银行的支持。自从一周前该股票发行起,收益率已收紧10点,至5.06%。

众所周知,阿曼经济严重依赖油气行业,石油占出口额约60%。然而,和其他中东经济体一样,阿曼正在持续进行经济多元化改革,转移对油气行业的依赖,去年与马来西亚政府合作,旨在参照马来西亚成功的经济多元化蓝图。第九个五年计划的第一阶段正在进行中,包括提振旅游业和制造业,并投资建设交通和物流领域。第二阶段将关注渔业和采矿业。因此我们预期阿曼还会继续发行国债,7年期伊斯兰债券将于本月底到期,可能会再发行12年期伊斯兰债券。

我们在Stratton Street把阿曼这个高收入国家信用评为4星,因为其境外净债务不到GDP的25%。而根据目前IMF的预测,我们预计阿曼信用在2019年可能降为3星。尽管如此,面对这些诱惑力,我们对目前持有的主权债券比较满意,目前其电网债券收益大可抵消任何潜在不利。然而,我们将继续监控所有仓位,并及时转向价值更高、信誉缓冲更高的工具,从而有效获得最佳表现。

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