每日新闻更新 - 巴西国家石油公司 The Daily Update - Petrobras/Brazil

巴西国家石油公司一直受到债券投资者的青睐,因为他们发债频繁、规模适中,采用硬通货,主要是美元,也有欧元和英镑。

该公司54%的股权由巴西政府直接掌控,10%由巴西主权财富基金和巴西发展银行直接所有。公司总资产约1820亿美元,据报道有1260亿美元未尝债务,是新兴市场中负债最高的企业。穆迪对其信用评级为B1,标普和惠誉均评其为BB-,因此其债券为非投资级。

巴西国家石油公司债券属于综合性油股,分成六大主要业务块,最大的收入来自炼油、交通和市场营销,之后是勘探和生产。主要的石油和能源资产来自包括非洲、北美、南美、欧洲和亚洲的16个国家。

巴西国家石油公司债券价差高于巴西政府债券,且以硬通货发行。例如,该公司2044年3月到期的债券(利率7.25%)最近的价差高出美国国库债券(UST)+404个基本点。类似的债券,于2045年1月到期的巴西主权债券(利率5%),最近的交易价差高出美国国库债券+265个基本点。

这两支债券的十月度收益率曲线比较平缓,因此没有太多差异,尽管到期日略有不同。但两支债券的久期有所不同,票息较低的巴西主权债券的领取利息时间又增加了2.3年,这值得我们关注。

由于巴西国家石油公司获得的信用评级不一致,因此我们统一使用穆迪的评级结果。巴西国家石油公司为B1,巴西主权财富基金为Ba2,价差为139点。如果利用我们的“相对价值模型”来评估,主权债券14年久期的合理信用价差是+331点,巴西国家石油公司为+454点,因此两者相差+123点。

较之公平价值,两支债券的市场交易价格较高,但考虑到巴西国家石油公司债券的久期和评级,其价差低了16点。

我们不会购买这两支债券,因为有其他债券和发行人(如墨西哥国家石油公司)可提供同等价值,而巴西国家石油公司展现的债券市场实际上是特洛伊木马。

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