每日新闻更新 - 俄罗斯 The Daily Update - Russia

根据俄罗斯国家统计委员会数据,俄国第1季度GDP同比增长0.5%,说明经过2年负增长后在今年回归正增长。俄罗斯财政部将2017年同比增长预期从0.6%提高到2%:这看上去有些太乐观,但预期会产生消费复苏。惠誉预测俄罗斯2017年GDP增长率为1.4%,2018年为2.2%;穆迪对此的预期分别为1%和1.5%。

俄罗斯央行已对进一步降息做了彻底审视:主要利率为9.25%,通胀率下滑至4.1%,达到了央行目标,强劲的泡沫继续为进口价格施加压力。央行将石油价格作为主要的监控因素,央行行长纳比乌林娜发表声明称一旦通胀预期稳定政策利率稳定,可下降至约300bps,位于目标通胀率上方。重要的是,较低的利率有助于促进国内需求复苏,2015-2016年期间私人投资和消费已经崩溃。

但正如世界很多地方一样,俄国也面临生产率下降的问题。低迷的投资水平是背后原因之一。俄罗斯经济严重依赖石油和大宗商品,原油价格从2014年中期开始下降,当时每桶价格超过100美元。信贷能力,例如国家的低债务水平、高对外净收益以及灵活的汇率,可缓解经济下滑和国际制裁的影响。除此之外,限制潜在发展的经济结构问题也是俄国面临的挑战。预计潜在增长率为1.5%-2%。一方面是生产效率、提高体制实力,以及为企业运营提供便捷,另一方面要面对不利的国内人口形势。

俄罗斯人口在1995年达到峰值1.482亿,但之后人口一直处于下滑状态,2015年全部人口1.435亿(联合国数据)。在没有大规模移民的情况下,这一趋势会继续下去,尽管生育率(每个女性生育的孩子数量)有所改善,预计2030年将从2015年的1.66提高到1.79。联合国预测俄国到2030年人口将下降至1.387亿。让问题更复杂的是,人口正在老龄化,预计2030年的抚养比率(15岁以下和65以上的人口与工龄人口的比例)将从2015年的43.1%增长至56.6%。

令人鼓舞的是,普京在2016年12月的联邦议会发言中表示,改善俄国经济增长率是政府在未来几年将要关注的核心领域。据报道,前财政部长库德林在一个计划中与普京总统合作,包括结构改革以及提高投资和生产率。经济部长Maxim Oreshkin表示,俄国每年投资需增加5万亿卢布(约合875亿美元),才能实现3%的GDP增长率。

当然,俄国绝不是唯一一个面临巨大结构性挑战的国家。人口缩减问题继续限制着全球发展前景。根据联合国数据,2015-2030年间,全世界48个国家或地区的总人口(不只是工龄人口)将会减少。令人失望的生产率增长和膨胀的全球债务水平,很难会看到增长预期,这意味着未来几十年里利率和通胀率可能保持低水平。在这样的大背景下,收益率超过4%的投资级别长期债券就显得格外有吸引力。

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