每日更新 - 沙特阿拉伯/石油 The Daily Update - Saudi Arabia and oil

上周末,沙特阿拉伯国王萨勒曼取消了一条皇家法令,撤销对数千名公务员降薪和额外紧贴;这些人中大约三分之二为国家工作。官方说法是,撤销令反映出财政状况得到改善,副经济大臣阿尔图瓦基利(Mohammad al-Tuwaijri)称,第一季度的赤字为260亿沙特里亚尔,而预计为540亿沙特里亚尔。从去年十月降薪以来,预计节省了360~400亿沙特里亚尔。这可能回避了关于沙特进行改革的决心程度的疑问,这也可以看出降薪政策也很不受欢迎,它导致收入大幅缩减,而同期收入也正因为缩减的石油能源补贴以及2018年1月要执行的VAT政策而缩水。有报告预测,一直有一些反对缩减财政的声音。从积极的一面来看,这可能会提高消费者信心,有益于经济发展。

惠誉在3月30日的最新一次审评中,将沙特评为有稳定前景的A+,之前的等级为AA-,显示其公共和外部资产负债表恶化,政府赤字达到2016年GDP的17.3%,并且“关于政府雄心勃勃的改革计划能执行到何种程度也始终存在怀疑”。2017年预算中,中央财政赤字定为GDP的7.7%,约1980亿沙特里亚尔。原油价提高被视为改善的主要驱动原因之一。惠誉预测财政赤字在2017年将降到GDP的9.2%,2018年降到GDP的7.1%,一般政府债务在2018年将提高到GDP的14.5%,前提是假定2017年布伦特原油每桶价格为52.5美元,2018年为每桶55美元。

在本阶段中,假设石油价格继续提高,由于赤字一直高于王国的预测,对某些严重紧缩的计划稍加放松,并不会引起太大的忧虑。无论如何,这将不可避免的受到评级机构的密切关注,同样受到关注的还有该地区紧张的地缘政治以及继承皇位的竞争。对我们来说,沙特一直有非常强劲的净外国资产,充裕的外汇也让它有时间执行必要的调整和结构改革。另外,主权债券评级下降,例如Saudi 4.5% 2046下降了2.5档信用级,说明大量负面因素已经聚集。

目前的石油输出国组织(OPEC)和非OPEC国家的减产会持续到今年六月底,沙特能源与工业部大臣法力赫(Khalid Al Falih)一直在释放提振评论,说如果市场不稳定,减产协议会延长。协议成员国均已按要求减产,较高的原油价格导致美国页岩油产量增加。例如,美国能源部数据预测,从OPEC国家减产以来,美国原油产量已增加550,000 b/d。让俄罗斯同意延长减产协议非常重要,如果俄罗斯同意将产量削减300,000 b/d,它将成为非OPEC国家中削减量最大的生产国,占总削减额的17.4%(174万b/d,OPEC国家是116万)。然而,夏季即将来临,这通常是俄罗斯石油产量较高的季节,新油田也到了上线的日期,因此协定削减到何种程度还有待观察。

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