每日新闻更新 - 让人失望的英国生产率增长 The Daily Update - UK productivity disapppoints

过去十年发生了很多事,但不包括英国的生产率增长。英国国家统计局的数据显示,英国2017年第1季度生产率同比增长为负值-0.5%,这回到了2007年第4季度的水平。是的,全球金融危机已经过去这么多年了。现在,生产率增长只要再有3个季度同样表现如此低迷(预期很多国家都会发生,包括英国),就会有大量国家和日本一样,进入“失去的十年”。英国预算责任办公室预测,如果生产率增长保持2%的长期趋势,指数会更接近124的水平,也就是说,总体而言,我们要比现在的生产率提高接近四分之一(也可以理解为,每周工作4天但仍保持目前的生产效率不变)。在G7国家的生产率增长排名中,英国与加拿大并列第5,后面只还剩一个日本。按照每小时的GDP产出来看,德国、美国和法国分别比英国要高出约35%、30%和25%。很显然,英国存在生产效率问题。但是,这只是暂时的不景气呢,还是说,目前的平庸表现是我们可以预期到的未来生产效率水平?

“只是不景气”的命题似乎是把八十、九十年代以及本世纪头十年早期的发展作为评估长期趋势的标尺。但如果把这些数据按照行业切分,采矿业出现了广泛而普遍的生产效率繁荣,这包括北海油田,同期的金融服务领域也有相对较小但仍很可观的发展。这两个领域的生产效率在本世纪头十年中期开始下降,根据英国国家统计局的数据,两个领域现在每小时产出仅有2007年的55%和90%。短期显著峰值/逆转可以很大程度上解释为什么最近的生产率增长一直如此消沉,但应注意,我们也必须认识到,它也大幅抑制了前数十年可持续的长期生产率增长趋势。

如果是这样,这将又是一个长期发展预期偏向上升趋势的典型例子。现实上,金融危机前的近数十年并不是衡量正常和可持续发展预期的最佳标准,至少它没有调整诸如北海油田和金融服务业等领域的繁荣等因素。将近10年过去了,市场似乎还在唤醒“长期萧条”等术语概念及其意涵。英国国家统计局最近发布的生产率数据只是短期的失望。但如果今年年末的数据让“失去的十年”板上钉钉,也许要更多地质疑对一个进入老龄化和工资停滞的发达经济体而言,2%的生产率增长是否现实,是否是平衡的长期发展预期。

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