周快报 - The Weekly Update

随着马克龙远超预期以20%的优势当选法国总统,刚进入新一周的市场表现平静:市场波动并不大,欧元略有上涨,法国政府债券稳定,这也是过去几周几经波动平衡后的定价结果。关于俄罗斯将延长同OPEC达成的石油减产协议的新闻提振了石油产业。中国外汇储备连续第三个月上升,达到3.0295万亿元,平缓了亚洲外汇市场。

上周美国公布了非农就业数据,本周晚些时候将有其他数据陆续公布,其中周四将公布PPI(生产者物价指数),周五公布零售销售数据。本周有多位美联储发言人将发表重要讲话,特朗普和他的推特账号也会提供不少资讯。

欧洲略有小动作。德国工厂订单增长1%。周二我们将报道德国IP和贸易数据以及意大利零售销售数据,周三报告法国和意大利的IP数据。周四报道英国央行公布利率决议(预期不会有大改变)以及IP、贸易和建筑产出数据。我们也会报道欧盟委员会的经济报告,但它很少提及这些数据,也不会对此产生多少影响。周五报道德国GDP、CPI、EC IP数据,西班牙CPI数据,法国非农就业数据(这在巴黎已有所提及,但市场几乎没有注意)。

在亚洲,如前文所述,中国的外汇储备继续增加,其贸易顺差达到380.5亿美元,几乎比预期高30亿美元。在澳大利亚,获得许可的建筑数量大幅下降,环比增长率为负值-13.4%,但澳洲国民银行业务信心保持平稳。我们将在周二报道澳元零售数据,周三报道日本外汇储备和领先指数的官方数据,周四报道日本贸易数据。另外,我们将在周五报道新加坡零售数据,感兴趣的朋友可稍加关注。

关于拉美地区,我们将在今天晚些时候报道智力CPI和贸易数据,明天报道墨西哥CPI,周五报道墨西哥IP数据。周四将观察巴西零售销售数据。我们并未持有巴西债券,因为考虑到其信用评级,巴西债券的定价过高。但我们稳定持有墨西哥准主权债券Pemex,其利率为5.5%,于2044年到期,自去年以来价格上涨5.5点,差价为344点,远高于这支Baa1债券160点的公允价值。实际上,如果该债券接近公允价值,在价格上将再反弹26点。

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