The Daily Update - Rio, we have a problem

随着地缘政治担忧的加深,本周巴西资本市场继续面临压力。周末,巴西律师协会多数投票支持弹劾现任总统米歇尔·特梅尔,更加重了这一问题。三分之一的巴西内阁成员正在接受腐败调查,随之而来的政治危机让之前推广的“EM Gem”前途未卜,亟需的经济改革也被迫中止。评级机构标准普尔已经宣布可能把该国的BB信用级别降级,未来三个月内进一步降至垃圾级别,声明“政治不确定性增加,调整措施已经拖延,在这样的大背景下,一些解决财政和经济问题的进展面临停止的风险”。



相反,我们倾向于投资墨西哥的国有石油公司Pemex 2044(5.5%),它属于投资级别,收益率超过6.2%,预期回报率约23%,信用缓冲超过4档。目前该债券与政府债券的价差为340bps,我们评测其公平价值约160bps,这说明该债券要达到公平价值还有超过20点的资本增值。

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