The Daily Update - Rio, we have a problem

随着地缘政治担忧的加深,本周巴西资本市场继续面临压力。周末,巴西律师协会多数投票支持弹劾现任总统米歇尔·特梅尔,更加重了这一问题。三分之一的巴西内阁成员正在接受腐败调查,随之而来的政治危机让之前推广的“EM Gem”前途未卜,亟需的经济改革也被迫中止。评级机构标准普尔已经宣布可能把该国的BB信用级别降级,未来三个月内进一步降至垃圾级别,声明“政治不确定性增加,调整措施已经拖延,在这样的大背景下,一些解决财政和经济问题的进展面临停止的风险”。

去年巴西前任总统罗赛芙被弹劾下台后,很多投资者涌入巴西,希望临时总统特梅尔能带国家走出经济破败,并能有效阻止巴西进入双底衰退。不幸的是,风险变得更高了。老读者会发现我们从不支持巴西债券。首要原因是,尽管它属于投资级别,但缺乏价值和价差缓冲。然而,目前把巴西从我们的投资视野中移除的最重要原因是:第一,巴西的净外债占GDP的比例超过50%,因此信用评级为两星;第二,它属于次级投资等级;最后,它的主权债券价格仍然畸高。

备受追捧的巴西国有石油巨头Petrobras卷入腐败丑闻,其债券被不断廉价抛售。例如,本月12日,美元发行的2044(7.25%)已经从最高的103.60美元跌了5.7个百分点;换言之,在7个交易日内该债券的收益扩大了约50bps,达到7.43%。如此高的收益率,加上约15%的预期回报率,让一些观点认为该债券是必持仓位。然而,考虑到信用评级进一步下调的风险,以及不足2档的信用缓冲,我们会远离该债券。

相反,我们倾向于投资墨西哥的国有石油公司Pemex 2044(5.5%),它属于投资级别,收益率超过6.2%,预期回报率约23%,信用缓冲超过4档。目前该债券与政府债券的价差为340bps,我们评测其公平价值约160bps,这说明该债券要达到公平价值还有超过20点的资本增值。

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