每日新闻更新 - 卡塔尔 The Daily Update - Qatar

穆迪将卡塔尔长期发行人和主权债务评级由Aa2下调至Aa3,并将前景展望由负面调整为稳定,称“卡塔尔脆弱的外部状况以及可持续经济增长的不确定性”是下调的主要原因。标普对其评级仍为AA,但对其前景展望定为负面。

穆迪对卡塔尔的担忧之一是其外债总额不断增长,2016年已经达到GDP的150%,比2015年的111%有明显增加,穆迪认为这是Aa2到Aa3主权债务中增长最快的。穆迪也表示,卡塔尔的外部脆弱性指数(EVI)有所增加,高于Aa2级国家如阿联酋和科威克。EVI指数是短期债务和当前到期长期债务与外汇储备的比值。

然而,我们希望了解资产负债表的资产面,而不只是独立地看债务面,因此我们查看了其国外资产净额,并认为整体并非如此令人担忧。卡塔尔的主权财富基金(QIA)有很强的资产缓冲,并是国外资产净额最大的国家之一。实际上,穆迪承认了该事实,表示卡塔尔的EVI“在2017年预期达到464%,但这是因为我们在计算时没有包含QIA。根据到我们对QIA资产的预测,2017年EVI只有40%。考虑到这些缓冲,我们已经下调了卡塔尔对外部风险的脆弱性程度,从暗示性的“中等”下调至“很低”,因为考虑到卡塔尔庞大的国外资产净额,我们相信其外部风险脆弱性远低于量化数据所显示的。”

我们还要指出的是,预期卡塔尔的经常账户将在2017年出现盈余。穆迪和国际货币基金组织的预测数据都显示如此,因此经常账户压力将会大幅缓解。另外,卡塔尔在2017-2018年的财政收支相抵石油价格为53-55美元/桶。

我们对卡塔尔债券的持仓比较舒适,因为它们的价格较低,尽管评级下降,仍有多个信用缓冲档。例如,State of Qatar 2040(6.4%)用标普评级AA,相当于Aa2级,有4.7档缓冲,如果根据穆迪下调后的Aa3,则有3.7档缓冲,这仍然是很吸引人的核心投资组合。类似的,核心准主权债券Nakilat和Ras Laffan的评级也因主权信用等级下调而被穆迪下调:Nakilat 6.067%(1级留置权)和6.267% 2033(2级留置权)的评级分别为A1和A2,Ras Laffan 5.838% 和 6.332% 2027的评级均为A1。这些债券即使被下调一档,仍有四档缓冲,因此是我们最青睐的债券之一。

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