每日新闻更新 - 阿根廷/墨西哥 The Daily Update - Argentina, Mexico

自从两百多年前阿根廷独立,这个国家就成为违约专业户:对外部债务7次违约,对内部债务5次违约。因此,有人担心它未来一个世纪会再有一两次违约也是情理之中的,毕竟一切皆有代价。

昨天,阿根廷发行了100年期债券——2117年6月28日到期,票面利率7.125%。这批债券通过私募配售发行,共筹资27.6亿美元,价格90美元,与美国长期债券的价差为+514点,穆迪评级为B3,久期约20年出头。根据我们的相对价值模型(RVM),该债券大约相对高出2.5档信用缓冲,公允价值(FV)价差大约800点,这意味着价格要下降24点才能达到FV价差。虽然我们知道过去的表现不能保证未来,但简单来说,这不乐观。

墨西哥也有“黑”历史,尽管上次插曲——1982年的货币危机——已经过去三十多年。目前穆迪和标普对其评级分别为A3和BBB。墨西哥也在全球发行了长期国债——发行于2010年,2110年10月12日到期,票面利息5.75%,筹资26.77亿美元,久期为18年,价格约105美元,较美国长期债券的价差为+270bps。FV为+140bps,相对低3档信用缓冲,需要提高30点才能达到FV价差。

今日交易,短期阿根廷债券/长期墨西哥债券;你不需要等100年。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.