每日新闻更新 - 澳大利亚 The Daily Update - Australia

本周早些时候,穆迪将澳大利亚四大银行的评级从Aa3下调至Aa2,表示“家庭债务风险提高导致澳大利亚银行信贷对恶性冲击的敏感度加强,尽管澳大利亚近年的资本和流动性有所改善。穆迪不认为房地降温是核心情景,但以高房地产债务为代表的尾端风险成为高评级澳大利亚银行的关键性考虑因素。”

显著的房价膨胀、价值极高的家庭债务水平(到2016年底家庭债务是可支配收入的188.7%)以及增长缓慢的名义收入,都增加了与该领域相关的风险。穆迪认为“资本充分性似乎要进一步加强,但是家庭资产负债表的弹性以及银行资产组合对严重经济萎靡的适用性,都没有经过私有债务水平的检验。”

有趣的是,上个月标普对四大银行的评级保持不变,这很有可能考虑到主权评级,但下调了一些小型银行的评级。然而,标普将大型银行的评级展望前景定为消极:如果标普下调主权评级或者对主权评级的期待预期,也可能下调对银行的评级。但穆迪的评级只是将四大银行的评级调整为AA-,跟标普或惠誉一致,这样较低的评级应大范围融入市场定价。预测显示从标普的AA-下调1档,可影响银行的长期筹资成本约10个百分点。

穆迪仍将澳大利亚主权评级保持为AAA(稳定)。标普也将澳大利亚主权评为AAA,但展望定为负面:他们承认外部高负债率导致的主权风险,商品出口需求脆弱性,财政整合计划的风险,信用和住房价格快速增长带来的风险提高。强大的财政状况对补偿薄弱的对外头寸非常重要,对缓冲房产市场出现急转下滑也至关重要,尽管他们指出目前的基本情况是软着陆。

澳大利亚不包含在我们的投资选择中,因为我们的预测显示澳大利亚净对外债务远高于我们的临界值——GDP的50%,IMF调查认为该临界值与日益增长的外部风险有关,从投资的角度应该避开。尽管再杠杆化和宽松货币政策对很多债务国起到支持效果,中央银行(特别是美联储)开始减少刺激和去杠杆,但我们更愿意在评级更高的债务国持仓。

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