每日新闻更新 - 中国信用评级下降,但仍有投资价值 The Daily Update - China downgraded, but still offers value

今天上午穆迪将中国的信用评级从Aa3下调至A1。穆迪在其报告中表示,这仍然属于最高投资级别,并确认中国仍然有“非常高的”“经济实力”和“财政力量”,这反过来为中国带来“高经济弹性”和“政府财政力量”。这次降级让中国同日本处于同一信用等级,并使穆迪和惠誉的评级达成一致(惠誉对中国的评级从未超过目前的A+)。标普对中国的评级目前定为AA-,前景展望为负面。这些变动对市场来说并不令人惊讶,一直都有一些负面评论。这在价格上已有所体现,反应在中国主权债券和企业债券上,消息发出后人民币一直受到限制。

穆迪一直以来对中国的评论明确说明要预防降级必须加快改革;政府目前的改革步伐对长期发展前景来说并不是最优的。这次降级反映了中国长期信用情况较为薄弱,“穆迪预期随着经济债务持续增长、经济潜在增长放缓,中国的财政力量在未来将逐渐减弱”。仍然较高的A1评级证实了中国较快的经济发展、高政府收入、政府对金融系统和资金流的控制以及较低的政府债务。

需要强调的是,尽管评级下调,我们所持有的主要以美元发行的中国债券仍有很吸引人的价值:拥有在Aa3/A1区间较高的价差。例如,目前我们持有的中国债券平均有3.7档信用缓冲,如此高的价差/收益更常见于Baa1级债券。多元化的资产投资组合专注于相对低价的债券,它们能持续提供回报(同时保持较高的A级平均评级),并提供价差缓冲预防任何恶化或负面状况。

穆迪对中国长期经济发展的评估跟我们的并没有不同,尽管中国准主权债券仍有价值机会,企业信用也仍较强劲,我们认为远不止等量补偿了风险,如有任何重大变化,我们仍有空间重新估价。

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