每日新闻更新 - 中国经济改革阴影 The Daily Update - China's reforming shadow

周五中国人民银行宣布进一步微调人民币定价机制,将“逆周期因素”包含在内。这次调整是考虑到美元继续走弱,今年DXY指数(截止发稿)已下降了近4.5%。如果美元的确疲软,逆周期因素将限制人民币的日波动,根据中国外汇交易中心说法这将减少从众效应,实际上时对人民币进行投机性空头。这对我们来说并不奇怪,因为我们一直关注中国外汇交易中心的篮子模型,它并没有遵循之前的规定,自从穆迪将中国信用评级降一档至A1后,离岸人民币实际上更坚挺了。目前还不清楚“逆周期因素”的内容,但我们会同往常一样监控变化,并将其纳入我们的模型中。

今天是三天端午假的最后一天,我们预期市场会相对安静。但市场评论员的反应似乎又有些过度,他们认为随着政府加大管理力度,中国9.4万亿美元的影子银行业务正处于崩溃的边缘。这个问题的根源是大量表外借贷牵涉到一些小型银行和保险业务。今年二月初,中国的监管机构意识到这些业务正在增加,并且正在威胁着国家金融系统,因此开始缩紧市场流动性,并进一步推出系列管理措施,旨在阻止使用这些影子资金在中国债券市场投资。

见证了十年前的金融危机之后,中国已经朝着“史上最严厉的金融风险打击措施”迈进,中国愿意对一些地方和省级银行放手,同时避免金融动荡。去杠杆对经济是一件好事,但不是一夜之间就能完成的,而且违约和破产通常是痛苦的,但短期来看,需要在构改革和金融市场崩溃之间找到平衡,从而避免对金融系统造成长期危害。由于中国的政府债务总额占GDP的50%,政府仍有很大的空间来缓解任何关于国家主权债务的潜在担忧,正如穆迪所说,“强劲的资本水平和相对较高但正在下降的贷款损失准备金,减轻了主权债务面临的金融风险”。

目前我们没有投资任何中国银行,相反,我们选择投资了一家A级China Cinda,这是一家国有资产管理公司,因此其战略地位很重要,如有必要会得到中国政府的支持。随着中国经济进入改革和再平衡阶段,我们预期Cinda和其他资产管理公司在向工业和金融领域的企业提供金融支持发面会发挥重要作用,实际上,最近的一份与此相关的报告显示,评级机构穆迪认为“Cinda积累的广泛经验以及其三大资产管理同行将排上用场,我们期望这些资产管理公司对支持企业和金融领域重组发挥重要作用”。China Cina 2025(4.25%)债券有3.8档信用缓冲,回报率约为6.5%,今年的收益率到目前为止收紧了45bps至3.85%。

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