每日新闻更新 - 美联储/中东/卡塔尔 The Daily Update - Fed, Middle East, Qatar

普遍预期美联储将联邦基准利率提高25点至1.00%-1.25%,昨晚9-1的投票表决结果也让这成为事实;只有明尼阿波利斯联邦主席Kashkari投反对票,支持保持利率不变。

美联储表示,通胀水平最近已经下降,经济前景风险大体保持平衡,委员会正在密切监控通胀发展。据称,劳动力市场继续增强,就业整体平稳。美联储将在2018年底前保持其“点阵图”预期保持不变,到2019年略微下调。

关于经济,GDP预测没有改变,失业率预期较2017年PCE通货紧缩预期下调;核心从之前的1.9%下调至1.7%。

关于资产负债表,有更多详情,美联储对月度资产组合溢出的上限设为60亿美元国债和40亿美元按揭抵押债券。这些上限将按照每个季度60亿/40亿美元的速度提高,直到达到300亿/200亿美元,届时将不再提高,直到新的变动公布。我们尚不明确开始日期,但市场预期将在九月公布。在之前一次会议新闻发布会上,美联储主席耶伦说计划将很快执行,未来几年可能完成重行结算。

今天早些时候,债券市场的零售价格比预期少0.3%,本月CPI从五月份的1.9%下降到1.7%,美国债券反弹,美联储公告显示10年期债券收益从昨天上午的2.20%下降到2.13%。

从侧面看,零售业务是很奇特的领域,因为它占家庭消费的40%,但却没有像用来预测GDP的其他领域那样疲软。2017年第1季度的零售比去年第4季度的表现要好,但去年第4季度的家庭消费几乎是今年第1季度的三倍。这可以解释为什么亚特兰大联邦GDPNOW预测数据昨天从3%增长到3.2%。

在中东,卡塔尔债券和政府债券继续在收益曲线长尾端,比五月末水平低一个基点,自6月9日以来反弹了3点。随着市场释然,曲线中的价格反弹,该地区的冲突并没有恶化,尽管没有太多新闻发出,但整体认为谈判的方式有益于各方。所有相关方也都想体面地解决问题。科威特领导人是主要的协调者,没有介入这场断交风波,据报道正在达成协议。

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