每日新闻更新 - 美联储非农就业数据 The Daily Update - FED NFP

周二晚间,美联储理事布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)对联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)目前所面临的形势发表了看法。布雷纳德是公认的鸽派,但最近更偏向中央派。关于基金利率,她表示“将很快”调整利率是“合适的”,并补充说,如果通胀数据持续,“将令人担忧,最终会让我重新评估哪种方式是合适的政策”。仍然需要相关数据支持,但对通胀前景的担忧已降低了美国国债收益。

更值得关注的是她对资产负债表的看法;市场对2013年伯南克引起的“退出恐慌”仍然记忆犹新。她说,改变资产负债表政策的时间表“更加清晰”了。在问答环节中,她指出受到财力支持的按揭贷款以及美国国债有不同的市场特征,再投资水平应体现这些差异。她强调自己支持美联储基金利率核心政策作为积极的货币政策,把资产负债表“附属于”美联储基金利率。她指出,“可能出现我们需要更积极地依赖资产负债表政策的情况”,不利的冲击可能适合启动再投资以“保持传统政策空间”。

的确,美联储并不完全明确其缩表政策,但其观点之一是不管哪种没有再投资而到期的持仓类型,数额都需要有上限。一开始这个上限数额可能很低,美联储会逐步提高它,从而让更多的债券到期。

这个计划将会进行地非常缓慢。旧金山联储主席John Williams在周一对发表了看法。他认为未来会采取“更小的”资产负债表,今年晚些时候可能在缩进政策上迈出“一小步”。

我们认为“计划”是逐步收紧再投资,上限的调整也许会依赖数据,以此来保持灵活性。在某种意义上,它带来了潜在长期缩表,而不是美联储宣布的只是让所有短期债券到期,这更有可能扰乱利差交易。在“上限”计划之下,利差交易者会坚持,但债券将更难于获得。我们认为,这个有创意的计划能带来的可观灵活性,是所有FOMC委员似乎要于今年晚些时候开始缩表的原因。

五月份非农就业数据将于明天发布,预期新增就业18万,平均时薪增长率从去年的2.5%轻微增长至2.6%,失业率稳定在4.4%。6月14日美联储将召开下一次会议,如果宣布利率目标区间再上调25个基点,将带来非常大的冲击。

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