每日新闻更新 - 法国和希腊 The Daily Update - France and Greece

周日,法国选民进行了最后一轮的法国立法选举。第一轮由马克龙和他的共和前进党获得控制地位:同盟友民主运动党获得了32.3%的选票,其中后者获得了4.1%。法国的民调预测一向比较准确,最近的Opinionway民调显示,共和前进党将在577个议会席位中获得440~470个。马克龙的成功将使社会党大受挫折,在选举前社会党控制331个议会席位,预计在立法选举中将只能获得70~90个。预计马克龙将在国民大会中获得绝对优势数量的席位,并将力推改革方案,解决众多难题,包括劳工、结构改革以及在5年任期结束后将失业率降至7%。劳工改革是目前的核心问题,但其他目标也不容忽视,包括将预算赤字降低到3%以下(这是欧盟强制要求的水平),同时进行500亿欧元的投资,但要节省600亿欧元的政府开支。

然而,要尝试并推行这些改革无疑面临很大的挑战,尤其当下世界各地的选民都厌烦了经济紧缩、工资停滞和显而易见的不平等。虽然马克龙在上周末的选举中吸引了大部分选票,但49%的低投票率说明公众的社会参与率并不高:9.6%的失业率,年轻人失业率更高,达到21.7%。另外,全国数字掩饰了巨大的差异:在大都市区中,瓦勒德瓦兹省第8大行政区的选民弃权率高达67.9%!

马克龙政府在欧盟内的立场也颇值得关注。考虑到对希腊债务可持续性的不同观点,欧洲债务一直是有争议的领域。德国始终不情愿提供债务免除,但国际货币基金组织(IMF)明确指出他们的参与情况取决于希腊债务负担的可持续性。马克龙支持一些重构决策,因为他认为现状不可持续。法国支持根据经济发展来调整希腊债务偿还(也就是,经济发展好则多偿债,反之则少偿债),这跟Yanis Varoufakis在2015年担任希腊财务部长时的提议很类似。法国认为这是很好的折中方案,尤其考虑到较之对欧盟的发展前景预期,IMF对希腊的前景并不乐观。

昨天的欧元集团会议取得了一些进展,这个灵活的偿债机制同意将1300亿欧元的第二次救济贷款的偿还期限延长15年。未来几个月,已经批准的85亿欧元欧洲稳定机制(ESM)资金将用于偿还债权国,从2008年以来希腊经济已经缩减了大约27%,今年第1季度的经济增长率仅为0.4%,要让希腊债务可持续还需做大量工作。IMF还希望知道在评估希腊债务可持续性之前,债务重组要做到什么程度,并因此形成了临时回避,原则上同意提供救助,但在进一步明确将提供充分的债务免除来让希腊债务负担可持续之前,不会发放180亿欧元的贷款。实际上,问题已经抛出来有几个月的时间了:希腊中央政府债务达3200亿欧元(占GDP的180%),IMF还没有承诺无条件支持救助,希腊债券不符合条件,很难看出希腊将如何在2018年该计划结束前满足所有市场融资需求。

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