每日新闻更新 - 高估值市场机构调查 The Daily Update - Institutional survey of overvalued markets

美林银行每月都会对管理 6000 亿资产的 200 家机构投资者进行市场价值水平调查。从 2016 年早期开始,参与调查的机构中表示股票市场被高估值的受访者比例从0%(即50/50)增长到44%;如此高的比例是历史上少见的,超过了该项调查在互联网泡沫晚期的峰值。将近40%的参与调查者表示“Long Nasdaq”(长期纳斯达克)是过热交易,20%认为“Long Eurozone Equities”(长期欧元区股票)是过热交易。

该调查在六月第一周进行,总结认为6月9日之前的科技股下跌,纳斯达克下跌近2%。该指数在昨天和今天继续下跌,现在似乎已经平稳,回到了接近周五的水平。但对在过去4年已经将投入资金翻倍的人来说,上周五的回报率变动并没有引起太多注意。然而,考虑到最近不正常的低波动率,似乎更多的快钱流到股市,尤其是美国科技板块。另外,似乎很多机构投资者认为这可能加强他们的行业敏感度。标普和纳斯达克的股票指数达到/接近峰值,价格收益比分别达到约22倍和33倍,不难想象很小的冲击就足以打破这种平衡。

当然,随着第四次工业革命逐渐展开,科技板块有很大的发展空间。但当大体已经定价了,发展可能会更加困难。BofAML调查中只有5%的受调查者认为“Long EM FX and Debt”是过热交易,这对作为债市价值投资者的我们看来是很有趣的。对我们来说,该调查没有将高收益债权作为单独选项列出是不科学的,因为我们认为这些债券显然是高估值资产类别;尽管在发达市场和心形市场的高评级债务中仍有价值空间。在当下不确定环境下,那些看上去回报率过高过热的资产,我们认为是最敏感、最有吸引力的选择。

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