每日新闻更新 - 马尔代夫垃圾债券 The Daily Update - Maldive's junk bond

当我们在英国享受着潮湿夏日时,聊聊阳光明媚的马尔代夫未尝不是一种选择。这个岛国经济主要依靠富有竞争力的旅游行业。2016年马尔代夫旅游业以直接或间接的方式贡献了接近80%的GDP,其名义GDP约为38亿美元。尽管该国经济发展势头强劲,约为5%,但由于其经济结构过于单一,经济发展很容易受到影响。从另一方面看,其人均GDP预计约为$15,000,相当于世界平均水平的60%。我们将马尔代夫的国外净资产等级评为4星,其国外净债务不到GDP的25%。然而,马尔代夫仅在最近才被主流机构评级:惠誉在今年五月中旬首次对其评级,将其评为B+级;2016年二月穆迪将其评为B2。

上周,马尔代夫发行首支5年期2亿美元主权债券,票息为7%,并由中国最大的银行之一交银国际独家承销。这支高流动性高收益债券目前的差价很有吸引力,高出美国国库券约505点。而其他B级信用债券目前差价约为355点。因此,我们估算该债券可提供约13%的预期回报和收益,信用缓冲不到2档。即使这是一支可以纳入我们投资等级投资组合的债券,我们也未持有,因为它没有提供抵抗不可预知事件的充足防护缓冲,且不能补偿潜在政治风险以及单一经济结构带来的风险。

而根据我们的观察,Aa3级准主权债券Sinopec 2023(3.125%)则是很让人感兴趣的投资。该债券虽然差价较小,为120点,但信用缓冲比马尔代夫这支新发债券高出10档,而且回报和收益率约为6.5%,有接近4档信用缓冲。

对收益率的追逐让一些投资者进入高收益率垃圾债券,美元发行的B级债券差价非常小。然而,我们不认为目前经济环境对这种方式有益。通常而言,当全球经济发展强劲时,次级投资等级债券表现良好,但现在的全球经济却并非如此。在当下环境中,最好的投资是投资级别的信贷。我们认为购买低估的投资级别债券远胜过购买高收益债券,而且承受的风险更小。

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