每日新闻更新 - 卡塔尔 The Daily Update - Qatar

考虑到近日卡塔尔与其他海湾国家的矛盾争吵,我们从宏观的经济和地缘政治视角,对最近及正在发生的事件进行分析总结。我们持续关注事态发展,迹象日益显示双方正朝着建设性对话的方向发展。各方也有和平解决问题的动机,包括在该地区有既定能源和军事利益的西方国家。另外很重要的是,在评估一个国家的风险时,单独报表基础以及能持续带来显著价值的市场价格,都是需要考虑的。卡塔尔30年期债券收益超出4.4%,这个全球最富裕的国家的信用评级是AA,根据我们的模型相当于有5档信用缓冲。

巴林和沙特阿拉伯突然宣布与卡塔尔断交之后,昨天阿联酋和埃及也宣布与之断交,这让市场不确定海湾国家联合对抗卡塔尔是否出于显著的未知原因。随着事态清晰化,这次突然断交事件似乎源于卡塔尔向基地组织支付的一笔皇家人质赎金(最后一根稻草被压断……),也许还跟特朗普访问以及勇敢的沙特副王储有关。据称,对卡塔尔资助恐怖主义的指控是这次断交的主要原因。的确,各方都欢迎制定更严格的规则阻止卡塔尔境内的恐怖活动金融家。但断交的原因同样也在于卡塔尔的媒体对亲民主“阿拉伯之春”的报道,而阿拉伯之春在所有这些涉及到的国家中都引起了内乱(和开支)。的确,这是埃及与卡塔尔断交的显著原因:埃及把阿拉伯半岛电视台、SKY电视台和BBC列为恐怖主义支持者,因为他们报道了穆斯林兄弟会。

熟悉这个区域的人都了解针对卡塔尔的这些争吵以及对其控告。这不仅因为卡塔尔支持阿拉伯之春,也由于它与什叶派伊朗的必要外交关系。伊朗是卡塔尔的隔水邻国,共同拥有波斯湾的南帕尔斯/北部穹窿气田(South Pars / North Dome)。这是世界上最大的气田,拥有至少43万亿立方米天然气储量。以伊斯兰教什叶派为主的伊朗是瓦哈比派沙特阿拉伯以及其他逊尼派海湾国家的主要对手,卡塔尔不得不避免得罪海湾两岸的邻居大哥。

重要的是,卡塔尔外交部长萨尼告诉记者,“卡塔尔没有用冲突对抗冲突,卡塔尔的战略性选择是通过对话解决任何纠纷。”海湾对面的伊朗外长Javad Zarif写道,“邻居是永远的,地理不能改变。胁迫永远不是解决方案。迫切需要对话,尤其在戒斋月期间。”

美国与西方为各自利益而在推进该地区的稳定所产生的影响力也不容忽视。美国不但在卡塔尔和海合会成员国地区有重要的石油与能源利益,而且它的重要战略军事基地也分布在该地区:CIA无人机基地位于沙特阿拉伯,深海港和空军基地在阿联酋,而在卡塔尔则设置了美国中央司令部最重要的海外空军基地之一。在巴林和沙特阿拉伯发表同卡塔尔断交的声明后不久,美国国务卿蒂勒森就提到“海合会成员国保持联合阵线很重要”,他不希望裂缝“对联合打击恐怖主义造成任何显著影响,如果有的话”。

尽管是在戒斋月,今天卡塔尔当地仍有一些债券购买交易以及来自欧洲的投资,差价已经缩小。随着事态清晰,各方看上去都不希望争议升级突破目前的权利游戏。因此我们认为下行风险主要局限于短期波动性。

考虑到卡塔尔是世界上人均富裕程度最高的国家,我们对其金融能力和承担债务责任的动力很有信心。从自然资源富饶程度以及人口规模来看,卡塔尔无疑是最幸运的国家。有资料显示,按照目前价格,其已证实的石油天然气储量相当于每人300-400万美元,这比世界上任何国家都高。不仅如此,卡塔尔还高明地发展能源产业,并在国内外进行多元化投资。正因如此,自从进入本世纪以来其信用评级已经合计提高了5/6档,达到Aa3/AA。卡塔尔的人均GDP在全球排首位,这根据我们的国外净资产属于7星。

因此对这样一个富裕的国家而言,宣布无法偿还其国际债务只能产生相反的效果。的确,我们没有发现任何债权国对其国际债务违约,因为这样的举动将只能将该国退出国际市场,并引起诉讼及海外资产被没收的可能。富裕的国家这样做只会对自己造成更多损失。但作为被拍卖而且绝不是最壮的富小孩而言,卡塔尔不得不寻求一条敏感的外交途径来充分利用其经济财富。

如果过去几年教会了我们什么的话,那就是负面的政治或地缘政治事件是有风险的,不管是在哪个地区,也不管是多么“发达的”经济体。欧洲经历了大规模抗议、失业和极端党派势头,美国选出了最大嘴的总统,英国正面走向退欧带来的不确定经济未来。对卡塔尔,我们看到更多的仍然是正面因素,以及可观的海外净资产支撑下的高信用评级所带来的高相对价值。

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