每日新闻更新 - 卡塔尔/阿曼/中东/英国大选 The Daily Update - Qatar Oman Middle East UK election

保守党又实现了另一个不可思议的目标,在大选中领先之后立即决定组建少数党联合政府。一些人认为结果是好的,因为政府现在必须采取软退欧,之前梅所在的保守党拥有75个多数席位,现在却丧失殆尽,先前的硬退欧预期也将夭折。

随着卡塔尔与海湾国家的矛盾继续,解决冲突的对话已启动。昨天特朗普任命国务卿蒂勒森参与调解对话。蒂勒森是埃克森石油公司前CEO,在协调中东问题上有丰富的经验,并且把人团结聚集在一起。科威特埃米尔似乎也会参与调解。然而,卡塔尔埃米尔Al Thani昨天表示“卡塔尔希望知道问题的背景”,“阿拉伯国家没有给卡塔尔回应的机会”,“至今仍没有明确的要求,我们正在等待”。据报道,本周早些时候沙特已提出10项条件,要求在深入讨论如何结束争议之前,卡塔尔须同意这些条件。我们将继续密切关注这一政治事件。

债券市场分成两个不同的阵营:一种认为破坏是暂时的,并趁市场疲软增加仓位;另一种则主张卖掉任何上涨债券,并期望形势延续下去。自上周五卡起,塔尔10年期主权债券价格下跌了近2.5点,市场的确有双向流动,最初的恐慌让最高价格在本周早些时候有所下降。

较长期的卡塔尔债券价格仍在下滑,随着曲线受地方的主要支持,短期债券价格下滑接近0.5点。卡塔尔交通公司Nakilat将于2033年到期的债券以及卡塔尔开采和生产公司Rasgas将于2027年到期的债券,在本周只下跌了25分。但从更广面来看,大部分当前抛售出现在更具流动性的主权债券。

另外,沙特政府和企业债券价格有所上升,从0.5点(5到7年期)到1.25点(10年期以上)不等。阿曼债券突然减持,由于亚洲投资者减缓了最近对阿曼政府债券的购买进度,较长期债券下降了3点。我们认为这是没有理由的,并认为现在正值买入。

周三,标普将卡塔尔信用等级下调一档至AA-,惠誉仍保持AA评级,并评论说“包括沙特和阿联酋在内的七个国家断绝与卡塔尔的外交和经济纽带,并没有对卡塔尔的AA/稳定级主权评级立即产生影响”,“卡塔尔庞大的主权国外净资产可确保稳定暂时的宏观经济动乱”,“正如我们指出的,我们确认去年九月对卡塔尔的AA/稳定级主权评级,其主权国外净资产超过GDP的200%意味着卡塔尔主权信用对外部动荡有很高的弹性”。(这无疑说出了我们的观点)

我们会继续监控市场,但目前我们既不是卡塔尔债券的卖家也不是买家,卡塔尔有4档信用缓冲,较之其他同级债券有更好的差价表现。

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