每日新闻更新 - 沙特/墨西哥/阿根廷/巴西 The Daily Update - Saudi, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil

昨天,沙特王储易位,副王储穆罕默德‧萨勒曼成为王位继承人。国王将自己掌管国防、石油和经济领域的31岁的儿子提升为王位继承人,这一决定得到忠诚委员会34名成员中的31人的同意。该委员会由掌管阿勒沙特(Al Saud)家族的高级成员组成。这基本终结了穆罕默德‧萨勒曼和他的堂兄穆罕默德‧纳伊夫之间的权力斗争,据称后者已致信萨勒曼国王标识支持这一决定。此事意义非同寻常,因为萨勒曼王储一直是沙特经济多元化的主要推手,这也能让他有更多精力进行王国管理。

同时,美国国务院发言人Heather Nauert就海湾外交风波发表了强硬言论:“随着时间的推移,更多的担忧涉及到沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋采取的行动,在当下,我们面对一个简单的问题:这些行动是所谓的卡塔尔支持恐怖主义,还是海合会成员国之间长久以来的相互抱怨导致?”

昨天中东债券收到小幅效力,这不只因为关于这场外交风波的信息有限,也跟油价有关。由于库存再度提高,以及美国页岩油生产高于预期,导致油价跌至去年11月份以来的最低水平。

继续昨天的新闻报道,我们跟踪了拉美地区30年期政府债券的定价问题。

在阿根廷,我们持有2046年4月到期的债券(7.625%),该债券共发行27亿美元,穆迪评级为B3,有11.7年存续期,价格为104.80美元,与美国长期债券的价差为+453bps。从公允价值来看,价差为+692bps,按公允价值其价格为80.68美元,因此实际价格高出239bps,价值约高估24点。

在巴西,我们持有2047年2月到期的债券(5.625%),该债券共发行15亿美元,穆迪评级为Ba2(与其他两家评级机构的评级相当),有13.8年存续期,价格为96.5美元,价差+315.5bps。根据我们的RVM模型,该债券的公允价值为+339bps,所以尽管价格高出3个基本点,但基本与公允价值持平,这个差值同前文30年期债券相比已经很小了。

墨西哥将于2047年1月到期的总额20亿美元的债券(4.35%),穆迪评级为A3,其他两家机构的评级为BBB+,存续期为15.9年,比前文巴西和阿根廷的债券略长,单价95.75美元,价差190bps,公允价值为+137bps,距达到公允价值还差8.75点。

大体而言,我们认为阿根廷债券价格相对于其评级被严重高估,而且没有考虑到其最近的违约和争论的历史,不会得到风险补偿,因此应避免购入。

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