每日新闻更新 - 悲哀的南非 The Daily Update - South Africa's woes

近来南非连遭厄运,在国际板球锦标赛中被印度踢出局还不够,穆迪将其评级下调一档至Baa3(展望为负面),四月时标普和惠誉将该国评级降至次投资级BB+。穆迪的审查从四月初开始,并表示尽管有很多重要力量继续支撑南非的信用价值,但疲软的机构框架、不确定的政策和缓慢的结构改革以及财政侵蚀,正在阻碍该国的发展。

南非一直被称为“观望”经济体,由于制造业和贸易的大幅缩减,连续两个季度出现负增长,今年陷入了技术性衰退。更糟的是,超过四分之一的南非人口处于失业状态,今年第1季度27.7%的失业率更是创下了该国14年来的历史记录。南非的政治气候也让人担忧,祖玛总统在今年早些时候重塑内阁,做出了一些颇有争议的决策,这更让事态雪上加霜。穆迪认为这些风险威胁了南非中短期GDP实际增长。

该国的基本面明显恶化,消费者和企业对外国直接投资信心下降,这进一步妨碍了发展。实际上,据相关资源显示,南非在过去十年获得的外国直接投资少于其他新兴经济体(包括更为贫穷的邻国)。这一疲软事实也是我们(Stratton Street)不持有任何南非债券的原因之一,尽管从最佳评级基础来看,该国属于投资级别,根据我们的NFA模型也属于3星。

南非的国债价值也比较小。例如,其基准主权债券2041(6.25%)评级为Baa3/BB+,目前的回报率和收益率仅为11%,信用缓冲不足1档。对比之下,卡塔尔2042(6.4%)的信用缓冲要高出6档,预期缝线调整回报率为11.7%,收益率为4.3%,差价缓冲超过4档。

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