每日新闻更新 - 墨西哥 The Daily Update - Mexico

墨西哥下一届总统大选将于2018年7月1日举行,由于每任总统任期年限最多六年,这意味着现任总统培尼亚·涅托届时将卸任。因此,2017年地方选举结果很让人感兴趣,尤其是6月4日墨西哥州的选举结果,它是公众对不同政党的支持度评估。

之所以说墨西哥州的选举结果很重要,因为它是墨西哥人口最多的州之一,人口约占全国14%,也是GDP贡献最大的州。另外,它一直是革命制度党(PRI)的权力大本营,也是现任总统培尼亚·涅托曾任州长的地方。然而,考虑到培尼亚·涅托的支持率已经降至历史最低(约12%),以及民众认为该届政府未能控制腐败和犯罪,PRI候选人、培尼亚·涅托的表弟Alfredo del Mazo Maza将面临严峻的竞选挑战。PRI在处于主导地位的韦拉克鲁斯州和塔毛利帕斯州的支持率也已经下降,显示公众对PRI政党的失望。国家复兴运动党(Morena)候选人奥夫拉多尔(AMLO)曾两次参加总统选举,他为选民所熟悉,是一个劲敌,尤其是如果他的同党候选人Delfina Gómez Álvarez赢得墨西哥州。

根据官方统计,截至目前PRI党候选人Alfredo del Mazo Maza在墨西哥州的支持率略微超过Morena党候选人Delfina Gómez Álvarez,两者的支持率分别为34.3%和32.1%。PRD和PAN政党候选人分别获得18.6%和11.6%的支持率。截至发稿,有观点认为AMLO可能对结果提出异议。

无论如何,考虑到本届政府的不受欢迎度,这一结果对总统选举来说无疑是好迹象。1995年和2005年PRI党以微弱优势赢得墨西哥州,但在2000年和2006年的选举中败北。民调显示PAN和Morena在总统竞逐中领先PRI党,尽管PAN、PRI和PRD还没有提名最终候选人。问题之一是,PAN和PRD两党是否会为对抗ALMO推出联盟总统候选人。在5月20日的新闻发布会上,PAN和PRD政党领导人确认他们不排除这种可能。

墨西哥比索兑美元走强,这是因为Morena党的政策议程不利于投资者,增加了同美国进行北美自贸协定(NAFTA)再谈判的不确定性,PRI政府一直在为再谈判而奔走:AMLO对此始终严厉批判。另外AMLO威胁要接触能源改革计划。

对市场来说,NAFTA是一项关键问题。墨西哥当局希望在2018年第1季度末或第2季度初达成某种一致。美国贸易代表Robert Lighthizer的提名确认一波三折,也是谈判推迟的因素的之一。如果谈判再次推迟,并在总统选举前未能达成一致,这将增加不确定性,特别不利于AMLO在民调中获得优势。但我们认为尽快解决这一问题,对所有政党都有益。

我们继续持有主要以美元发行的墨西哥国家石油公司Pemex的债券,该公司由墨西哥政府100%所有。Pemex债务并不全然由墨西哥政府担保,但该公司具有战略重要性,政府也一直提供支持,并在必要时注入资金。例如,Pemex 2035(6.625%)的收益率为6.06%,有4.7个信用缓冲档,相较之下,以美元发行的墨西哥长期债券2046(4.6%)只有约1.8个信用缓冲档。

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