每日新闻更新 - 美联储,5年期美国债券,卡塔尔银行 The Daily Update - Fed, 5 year auction, Qatari banks

正如所料,美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的九个投票委员一致同意保持利率不变。美联储对资产负债表的一些评论值得关注:“如果整体经济发展符合预期,美联储将相对很快地实行资产负债表常规化”。这跟之前采用的“今年晚些时候”的措辞略有变动。基本上,这让市场一致认为缩表声明将在今年9月20日的下次美联储会议上公布。

关于通货膨胀和经济发展的展望,他们的观点明显没有改变,并声明“预期经济形势将确保按照联邦基金利率的速度进行增长”,“货币政策保持灵活,以此进一步加强劳动力市场,将最近达到的2%的通胀率保持下去”。该声明认为展望风险“基本平衡”,通胀状况 “正被严密监控”。有趣的是,现在认为2018年3月进行下一次加息的可能超过50%,今年12月份加息的可能是44.5%。

在美联储发布声明之前,美国5年期债券拍卖表现非常不错,间接投标者的中标率达69.8%,这是历史上第二高。间接投标者包括资产经理、对冲基金、外国央行、国内资金管理人和其他金融机构,他们可以按照非竞争原则进行竞标。美国债券接受所有非竞争投标和当时的竞争性投标。较高的竞标追评把收益拉低,反弹越过收益曲线。这一形势引起了欧洲主权债券的类似表现,今天上午德国10年期债券收益下降4.1bps,甚至金边债券市场在交易日早些时候也下降了3.7bps。

其他地区,自从以沙特为首的中东国家对卡塔尔断交之后,最普遍的担忧之一就是卡塔尔银行所面临的困境。昨天的一份声明指出,卡塔尔银行六月份的外汇储备从五月的1850亿里亚尔减少到1710亿里亚尔,减少约38亿美元。然而,卡塔尔六月份的国内储蓄增加了220亿里亚尔,总额达到6000亿里亚尔,我们推测这些资金来自卡塔尔人将资金从国外汇回国内以及来自政府部门的资金注入。我们一直关注卡塔尔的短期汇率,试图了解这次外交风波对卡塔尔银行产生的影响,并发现资产负债表遇到的任何压力。但卡塔尔的短期利率几乎没有遇到任何融资压力,现在原因明确了,这是由于卡塔尔人从国外向国内的汇款补充了外流的国外储蓄资金,从而缓解了融资压力。

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