媒体新闻更新 - “不计任何代价”欧洲央行表态5年 The Daily Update - ‘Whatever it takes’ 5 years on

“不计任何代价”,这句话拯救了欧元区,至少拯救了它5年。“欧洲27国的所有领导都表示,走出目前危机的唯一方式就是加强欧洲化,而不是减少欧洲化。欧洲建立在四大模块上:财政联盟、金融联盟、经济联盟和政治联盟。欧洲取得的成绩远比人们意识到的要多。人们低估了投入到欧元的政治资本。我们认为欧元是无法逆转的。在我们的授权内,欧洲央行将不计任何代价保留欧元。相信我,它有这个能力。”

以上是五年前的今天德拉吉的发言。这场演讲让市场对欧洲重拾信心,当时希腊10年期债券收益为27%,西班牙、意大利和葡萄牙的债券收益位于7%-11%。面对如此不可持续的收益,欧洲央行一定觉得除了自己充当放款人,没有任何其他办法。德拉吉明确有力的言论让市场确信央行会采取一切必要的货币工具。当年年底,希腊债券收益率减半又减半,现在是5.3%。

的确,接下来的融资成本下降阻止了危机爆发,但单凭此远不足以把欧元区经济拉回到平衡可持续的水平。五年前,德拉吉的这场讲话让市场满怀信心地期望很快会出台必要的财政政策和政治共识。但又经历了3年的缓兵之计后,希腊在2015年中期对IMF 17亿美元的债务违约。现在5年期的“扩大并假装”政策已经过去,其中包括3个救助计划,希腊已经有能力实现正增长,本周在市场筹集了30亿欧元的5年期债券(利率4.6%),尽管半数的购买者只是在有利的条件下转换了较短的久期债券。

但底层问题仍然存在。债务占GDP的比例继续超过180%。IMF和欧洲都无法走到可持续的道路上。IMF坚持要看到有意义的债务缩减。Mohamed El-Erian上月在《Guardian》上写道,尽管“欧洲政客担心国内同意希腊债务救济所产生的政治后果,但是IMF和欧盟的权宜之计远远不够,希腊仍然在严重债务风险的阴影之下。”

因此从这个意义上讲,过去5年没有什么变化,五年前我们写道“欧洲的不平衡非常严重,德国的国外净资产盈余(约9280亿欧元)和西班牙的国外净资产赤字(9820亿欧元)几乎不相上下。荷兰和比利时的盈余与意大利的赤字相当,法国规模稍小,在1000-3000亿欧元区间。”

这些不平衡不只是希腊,是整个欧洲的底层问题,其中在希腊这个问题已经解决了半数以上。对像希腊债务进行的投资就是在赌“扩大并假装”政策的存续期会超过相应债券的年限。但每过去一天,投资者就越对改革的空头承诺没有信心,救助资金将不断被消耗,政治动力消失,不断面临经济放缓和人口统计方面的压力。

IMF最近的“原则上批准”,给欧洲足够多的时间渡过这个大选季,到时欧洲将不会再把政治抵制作为有效的理由。如果没有达成有效的和解,即使发生民粹主义暴动的担忧消退,市场多半也会从不可持续的“扩大并假装”政策中醒悟过来。

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