每日新闻更新 - 油卢布/OPEC The Daily Update - Oill Ruble OPEC

我们的核心观点认为,从中期来看布伦特原油价格区间应保持在40—55美元,这是一个相对较大的范围。然而,我们也预期油价波动会继续保持下去,目前低水平的石油需求将会有所提升,但美国页岩油的生产将一定程度抵消石油需求。目前我们处于波段底短,OPEC国家的石油减产协议延长了九个月,而不是市场预期的12个月,美国钻井数量继续增加,有消息称大部分页岩油每桶的收益为40美元。

大体来说,随着石油价格攀升,产量也可能增加,这将限制油价上涨。目前风险面持续保持,每次库存超出预期价格都受到压力。除非未来几个月产生巨大需求,否则这种形势似乎会在近期持续下去,而世界经济保持发展保持在稳定水平,这移除了供求关系中的懈怠因素。当OPEC协议开始影响供应平衡,应利于提高油价。

根据去年的经验,石油价格并没有影响中东国家资产负债表,然而,如果油价保持在40-55美元的区间,投资者将会分析该地区的个体资产负债表。资产负债表越稳健,国家作为投资方就越不会动荡。我们的国外净资产计算模式为我们提供了帮助,只对资产负债表最稳健的国家进行投资,避开那些在油价疲软期间遭受财政压力的国家。

我们比较喜欢的一项对冲油价疲软的交易是短期投资俄罗斯卢布(出于理性的原因,我们没有将该交易纳入投资组合)。2014年中俄罗斯实行了货币贬值,以平衡油价下跌的状况,卢布兑美元的汇率为34:1;2016年油价跌到每桶约27美元,卢布兑美元更是达到80:1。目前卢布兑美元为59:1,比最近油价下跌后的汇率56:1又下跌了一些。如果油价继续疲软,俄罗斯当局可能会继续对卢布进行贬值,以此抵消不利的价格影响,从而在将销售石油的美元收入兑换成卢布时,可以购买更多的卢布来支付国内石油生产成本。

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