每日新闻更新 - 墨西哥和Pemex The Daily Update - Mexico & Pemex

墨西哥能源改革计划在最近几周迎来不少利好新闻报道。在Zama离岸油田发现一处新油田,储油量达14-20亿桶,该油田属于Talos Energy、Premier oil和Sierra Oil & Gas三家公司,该油田的发现得益于2014年启动的墨西哥能源改革计划,在该计划初期拍下特许经营权。另外,Eni宣布其在坎佩切湾的Amcoa油田的储油量为13亿桶。这些发现非常重要,因为运营的都是国际企业:在Zama新发现的油田是过去5年里发现的全球第五大油田。重要的是,这些油田到2020年的产出将有助于稳定和逆转墨西哥日益下降的石油产量:目前日产量低于200万桶,而在2005年达到的日产量峰值是340万桶。墨西哥最近推出的第二和第三次石油特许经营权拍卖也获得不错的反应。这些拍卖从24块油田中售出21块,只有3块储气丰富的在岸Burgos油田没有任何竞标。

这则新闻对墨西哥政府来说是利好消息,因为它将鼓励投资,特许经营权租金也有助于增加政府收益。穆迪这样评价Zama新发现油田:墨西哥政府将“从每桶产自离岸的石油中获得68.99%的利润,如果考虑到整个项目周期的税收和费用,则可获得80%的利润。油田和其他税收、费用和石油开采权获得的收益将有助于提高墨西哥政府的石油收入,该收入在2016年已经下降27.7%,仅占总收入的8.6%,2015年的占比是13%,2014年是27%。墨西哥国家油气委员会预测已拍卖的Round 2.2和Round 2.3油区在特许经营期内(30年)可带来20亿美元的投资。

除此之外,本周标普将墨西哥政府的展望从消极提高至稳定,并确定其外币评级为BBB+,并指出“墨西哥政府及时应对近期负面冲击,如2016年晚期货币贬值问题,将削弱最近的负债累积速度,帮助稳定政府的债务负担”。标普还预测,如果不出现巨大的货币贬值情况,政府债务占GDP的比重在今年和明年都将保持在45%。

Pemex是全球第八大石油生产商(根据2015年数据),由墨西哥政府100%所有,过去几周的市场表现积极,其2027年到期(利息6.5%)和2047年到期(利息6.75%)的50亿美元债券收益率良好;收益将用于债务再融资以及资本支出。穆迪对其评级为Baa3(消极展望),标普将其展望升级为稳定,评级为BBB+。

Pemex首席执行官在最近的一次访问中表示,Pemex已经完成了2017年的融资计划,因此现在重点是进行油田分租拍卖:今年将有4个分租油田(10月份拍卖Ayín-Batsil、Cárdenas-Mora、Ogarrio,12月份拍卖Nobilis-Maximino)。通过与国际企业分担成本和风险,并采用最优国际惯例,可有效提高Pemex的产量。Nobilis-Maximino油田尤其让人感兴趣,因为它的3P储备预期为5.02亿桶,接近于Trion油田的规模,Trion油田是Pemex同BHP在去年创建的价值110亿美元的合资企业。Pemex首席执行官也指出,他期望Pemex今年的日产量为194万桶,2018年产量略高,从而扭转自2004年以来的产量下滑局面。Pemex面临的主要挑战之一是改变主要油田Cantarell产量下滑的问题,在能源改革计划下建立同私营企业的灵活合作关系,有助于实现这一愿景。

Pemex是我们持有的墨西哥债券之一:美元发行的Pemex 2035年到期债券(利率6.625%)的收益率为6.2%,根据我们的估值模式,其价格低于信用等级5档。

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