每日新闻更新 - 债券通启动 The Daily Update - Bond connect lift-off

由于今天美国在庆祝国庆节,预期市场新闻将相对较少。至于其他地区,昨天是香港回归中国20周年,另外中国内地与香港的“债券通”平台正式启动。彭博社预期这一新平台将成为“全球最大的金融产品”。它将允许国外投资者不受配额或技术限制地进入9.4万亿美元的中国-香港债券市场。

在我们看来,债券通是非常积极的发展,它让国际投资者更容易进入中国债券市场。从市场资本的角度来说,考虑到中国在全球经济的重要性,大部分投资者都严重低估人民币资产。同QFII(合格境外机构投资者)和RQFII(人民币合格境外机构投资者)不同,债券通没有配额限制,这让投资经理更容易进入。这对小型企业来说尤其有利,他们之前不愿意通过QFII和RQFII进行耗费时间的申请。尽管债券通一开始对小型企业更有利,但由于企业缺少配额,它也将成为更大型企业进入中国债券市场的首选途径。

同大部分国家一样,允许国际投资者进入国内债券市场也会让中国受益,增加的贸易额将降低资本成本,其他因素保持不变。目前,国际投资者仅占中国债券市场不到2%的份额,考虑到中国经济的重要性以及中国债券市场的规模,这个比例非常小。我们没有跟随债券指数,这些指数给全球严重负债的企业和国家最大的权重。相反,我们从最受低估的债券和货币出发,这让我们在10年前就推出了人民币战略。10年之后,大量债券指数提供商有的纳入了中国,有的考虑将中国纳入他们的债券指数中。投资者在未来将持有更多的人民币资产。大部分投资者需要考虑如何更好地进入债券市场,而债券通似乎提供了一个便捷、节省成本的方式。

在人民币在中国之外被大量持有之前,很多投资者只有在预期到能获益时才持有人民币资产。目前,国际投资者对人民币的态度相对消极,这降低了持有人民币资产的需求。我们认为这种观点是不合时宜的,因为我们的调查显示,像中国这样持续保持当前经常账户盈余的国家,长期来看其货币将升值。而一旦美联储逐渐结束当前的紧缩周期,美国经济开始放缓,那么更坚挺的人民币的回报率将更加明显。

显然,债券通将让投资者更容易进入中国债券市场,这又让投资者更容易持有人民币。随着人民币作为结算货币越来越广泛地被接受,人民币国际化只会越来越明显,随之而来的对中国债券的需求只会增加。基于这些原因,投资者低估人民币是很危险的策略,债券通将是很多投资者的不错选择。

大部分投资者低估了中国债市的规模,而事实是,中国债券市场是全球第三大市场。MSCI最近将中国A股纳入其新兴市场指数,更大规模地涵盖人民币资产的进程已经开始。在债券市场中,也许中国拥有更重要的地位。目前有各种猜测,但有观点认为中国将在全球主要债券指数中占18%的比重。每一个以基准为导向的投资者的全球债券投资组合都需要有很大比重的指数参与度,而那些最先加入的投资者将比之后不得不跟随加入的投资者拥有更大的优势。

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