每日新闻更新 - 中国金融改革驱动 The Daily Update - China's financial reform drive

中国2017年第2季度的经济数据继续保持强劲,这让市场大吃一惊。经济同比增长6.9%,高于市场预期值6.8%;工业生产和零售数据也出人意料地上扬。国内需求提高,制造业稳定发展,维持了经济稳定和政府去杠杆力度。毫无疑问,这一弹性数据将支持政策制定者继续推行去杠杆计划,促进实体经济的发展。

正如周六结束的第五次全国金融工作会议强调的,扼制系统性金融风险是本届政府的首要任务之一。中国国家主席习近平在会上指出,金融风险是“永恒的主题”。新成立的监管机构——金融稳定与发展委员会,是国务院的下设单位,这一超级监管机构受中国人民银行的管理,旨在协调货币、财政和工业政策,同时进行金融部门改革、监督和管理,其主要的监管对象包括保险公司、在线金融机构和地方政府。

习近平主席在会议中强调,国有企业去杠杆非常重要,僵尸企业必须得到妥善处理,同时指出要严格控制地方政府债务。李克强总理强调,要在去杠杆和紧缩的货币政策之间实现良好的平衡。中国人民银行在应对金融系统风险中发挥着更大的作用,同时也表示要加强央行在宏观谨慎管理中的作用。我们认为中国的实际财政利率没有改变,但从中期来看央行的公开市场操作利率会收紧。

关于金融改革,习近平希望金融领域能有序开放。他也呼吁加强汇率机制改革,更严谨地推进人民币国际化和资本项目可兑换性。他希望看到金融领域(尤其是对国外投资者)稳步开放,鼓励金融创新来支持“一带一路”。

早些时候,中国央行货币政策委员会委员黄益平在金融新闻采访中表示,中国人民银行可能允许货币更具灵活性,拓展自由浮动区间,减少外汇市场的干预,很可能进一步升值货币。由于强劲的宏观数据,以及国家主席不断强调保持汇率基本稳定在合理的平衡水平内,已经使人民币连续七个交易期对美元升值。我们仍然认为人民币价值被低估,尤其考虑到市场似乎对人民币更加有信心、贬值预期缩减,预期长期来看人民币对美元将继续升值。

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