每日新闻更新 - 铜的涨势 The Daily Update - Copper's rally

同大部分商品一样,铜到今年为止也走了一些过山车的路线,交易价格在11%区间内波动,三月期铜期货价格达到近5个月以来的峰值,高于心理预期$6000pmt,收益率低于9%。作为全球铜消耗量最大的国家,中国的经济发展高于预期,这也促进了铜价的提升。另外最近也发生了矿场劳务纠纷和配送中断。

特斯拉Model 3的发布也促进了铜价的提升,因为相比传统汽车而言,生产电动车的耗铜量更大:内部电子组件、转子式发动机、电池和充电桩都需要用到铜。根据咨询公司IDTechEX上月发布的一份报告,生产一辆电动车需要83千克。该报告预测到2027年将有2700万电动工具(包括电动车、电动大巴和混合动力车),大约相当于现在的9倍。因此预测十年后铜的需求量将从目前的18.5万吨增加到174万吨。这些预测数据不包括充电设施,而每个充电桩最多需要约20千克铜。毫无疑问,铜的需求量将长期保持增长,更不要说像法国这样的国家宣称要到2040年禁止销售石油和柴油。

根据预测,目前铜矿将不能满足预期的铜需求量,因此有必要扩展铜矿的开采和勘探。这将推升铜价,消费者会吸收新启项目的高价成本。在全球需求预期提高的背景下,瑞士矿业集团嘉能可(Glencore)上周注资一家巴西生产商Paranapanema,持有其5%的股权。在其今年三月的年报中,嘉能可承认在2016年最后几个月中,铜的供应墙未能及时满足提高的需求。

本月我们持有的2035年到期美国南方铜业公司Southern Copper(利率7.5%)债券收益率达到4年来最高水平。这支债券的评级是Baa2/BBB+,风险调整预期回报率大约为14.5%,收益率为5.25%,有3.3档信用缓冲。这家美国公司位于亚利桑那州凤凰城,采矿业务主要在秘鲁和智利。另外,全球最大的铜生产商智利国有公司Codelco的债券今年以来一直表现良好。2036年到期的Codelco债券(利率6.15%)与美国国债的价差是190bps,而同等债券的价差是80bps。我们认为这支评级为A3/A+债券还要再长18点才能达到公允价值,其收益率为4.45%,有4.3档信用缓冲,这都是很有益的因素。

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